Cuba

Trott Bailey Family Abundance · Country Profile

Cuba

Tracking baselineEvidence through 3 Oct 2026
TBF Rank #170 of 243 countries
CubaTrending down: previously #166, now #170.Recent recorded movements
  1. #166 → #1706 Oct 2026 · 19:42 GMT-0500
  2. #163 → #1666 Oct 2026 · 18:46 GMT-0500
  3. #72 → #1636 Oct 2026 · 18:46 GMT-0500
TBF Abundance Score -67.2 Evidence before Abundance Gate +21.1 National Abundance Gate Money-gated · graded GDP Rank — Coverage 88% Categories scored14 / 16

Money Gate 20 · Overall Gate 0.7.0

Five basics stand between this country and zero

This older research pack has not yet received a direct five-part Money Gate audit. Its historical Reach/Friction evidence is compressed to a maximum transitional 4/20 so we do not invent free-access points that were never researched.

Money Gate score 1.5 / 20 Cash-Register Lock 92.7 / 100 Friction Economy Pressure 86.5 / 100 Money-gated ceiling -45.7
Food Pending Housing / Land Pending Healthcare Pending Transportation Pending Water / Energy Pending
9% weightHuman Time & Burden Return
+13.0

Whether productivity, infrastructure and institutions return usable lifetime to people and families.

TBFC target: Necessary contribution should not require people to sell most of their waking life merely to retain access to food, shelter, care and ordinary family life.

Access-gate research question: How much paid work or income-producing activity is required before an ordinary household can keep access to basic life, and what usable family time remains afterward?

Capacity+55.0
Reach+50.0
Friction-85.0
Return / Regeneration+20.0

Abundance Gap: +5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Strong public-service institutions coexist with acute current losses of household time to shortages, queues, blackouts and service unreliability.

Verified evidence

Cuba: shortages, inflation and service failures consume ordinary household time

Reuters reported in September 2026 that long bank lines had become common while food, fuel and medicine shortages persisted, and official consumer prices were up more than 25% in January–August versus a year earlier. Frequent blackouts and scarcity force households to spend substantial time locating cash, transport, food, water and fuel rather than receiving those essentials reliably.

Reuters — As lines grow at banks, Cuba tiptoes away from communism but stability seems distant
8% weightHousing, Shelter & Housing Reach
+12.8

Whether adequate shelter physically exists and actually reaches people without excessive cost, exclusion or vacancy mismatch.

TBFC target: Adequate family shelter should remain reachable without lifetime dependence on rent, mortgage debt or ability to pay.

Access-gate research question: What share of ordinary shelter access depends on rent, mortgage debt, purchase price or other recurring payment, and what dependable non-market routes exist at national scale?

Capacity+40.0
Reach+45.0
Friction-70.0
Return / Durability+30.0

Abundance Gap: -5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. A large existing housing stock and state housing mechanisms are outweighed by an acknowledged deficit above 800,000 homes and very weak completion rates.

Verified evidence

Cuba: the housing deficit remains above 800,000 homes while completions continue to fall

The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights recorded an acknowledged housing deficit of 805,583 dwellings in 2025. ONEI-based reporting shows only 5,493 homes were completed in 2025, down from 7,427 in 2024, indicating severe mismatch between physical shelter need and replacement or rehabilitation capacity.

Inter-American Commission on Human Rights — Annual Report 2025, Cuba · IPS Cuba — Estadísticas de construcción de viviendas en Cuba
9% weightFood, Nourishment & Free Food Abundance
+14.0

Physical food and nutrient capacity, nourishment reach, waste/loss, public edible landscapes and free food access.

TBFC target: Nutritious food should exist in multiplying abundance and remain reachable even when a household has no money to spend.

Access-gate research question: Can people obtain adequate nutritious food when they cannot pay, and are free/public/productive-food routes large enough to be ordinary rather than exceptional?

Capacity+45.0
Reach+50.0
Friction / Waste-80.0
Return / Multiplication+35.0

Abundance Gap: -5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Cuba constitutionally recognizes food security and maintains ration/social-protection systems, but WFP documents widespread availability, purchasing-power and diet-quality constraints.

Verified evidence

Cuba: universal food policy remains constrained by shortages, imports, inflation and weak diet diversity

WFP states that Cuba has a constitutional right to food and long-standing universal basic-service policy, but the present economic crisis, high inflation, eroded purchasing power, embargo effects and repeated disasters have hindered food availability and economic access. WFP says the average household diet is often inadequate in energy and insufficiently healthy or diverse.

World Food Programme — Cuba country strategic plan 2026–2030
6% weightWater & Sanitation Abundance
+17.0

Safe water, sanitation, reliability, capture, reuse, storage and living-landscape water capacity.

TBFC target: Safe water and sanitation should be dependable life infrastructure, not conditional on household purchasing power.

Access-gate research question: Can households retain safe water and sanitation when income falls, and which payment, disconnection or infrastructure barriers interrupt access?

Capacity+55.0
Reach+50.0
Friction / Loss-75.0
Return / Regeneration+30.0

Abundance Gap: +5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Basic coverage is historically broad, but safely managed sanitation and current water reliability are weak, with millions affected by shortages in 2026.

Verified evidence

Cuba: nominal water coverage is undermined by severe reliability failures

UNICEF internationally comparable data report 95% basic drinking-water coverage and 41% safely managed sanitation in 2022. By September 2026, Reuters reported that about 3.5 million people were experiencing water shortages and that nearly 90% of Havana water infrastructure depended on electric pumps, making prolonged blackouts a direct water-reliability problem.

UNICEF Data — Child-related SDG progress assessment for Cuba · Reuters — Viruses run rampant across Havana as water, power fails
5% weightEnergy & Household Capability
+7.3

Whether usable, reliable energy reaches households and removes burdens across water, food, health, cooling, cooking and movement.

TBFC target: Essential household energy should support cooking, cooling, water, food preservation and care without money becoming the switch that turns basic capability on or off.

Access-gate research question: Can households retain essential energy for cooking, cooling, water and food preservation when they cannot pay, and how often does price or disconnection reduce capability?

Capacity+45.0
Reach+50.0
Friction-95.0
Return / Burden Removed+15.0

Abundance Gap: -5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Formal electricity reach is broad, but repeated national grid collapses and prolonged blackouts sharply reduce usable household energy.

Verified evidence

Cuba: repeated nationwide grid failures now sharply limit usable household energy

The IEA records two major outages in 2025 after three nationwide blackouts in the second half of 2024. Reuters reported another nationwide grid collapse in September 2026 amid fuel shortages and aging generation infrastructure. Electricity may be formally connected widely, but reliability is currently a dominant household constraint.

International Energy Agency — Electricity 2026: Reliability · Reuters — Cuba electrical grid collapses again
7% weightHealth & Care Reach
+41.0

Whether prevention, primary care, medicine, maternity care, dentistry and specialist capability reach people when needed.

TBFC target: Prevention, maternity, dentistry, medicine and necessary treatment should be reachable because care is needed, not because payment can be produced.

Access-gate research question: Can necessary care be obtained because it is needed, or do price, insurance, employment, debt or other financial tests materially delay or prevent access?

Capacity+80.0
Reach+75.0
Friction-60.0
Return / Prevention+65.0

Abundance Gap: +5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Universal health architecture, workforce and prevention capacity remain major strengths, while medicine, diagnostic, power and logistics shortages materially constrain current delivery.

Verified evidence

Cuba: universal health architecture remains a major strength, but medicine and operating supplies are under severe strain

PAHO describes Cuba as having universal health coverage, including remote areas, and life expectancy of 78.3 years in 2024. PAHO also reports current shortages of diagnostic reagents, antibiotics, other medicines and basic health-service supplies, with power, fuel and transport constraints threatening continuity of care.

PAHO — Cuba country profile, Health in the Americas · PAHO — Crisis Situation in Cuba
6% weightEducation & Human Capability
+49.5

Foundational learning plus practical, technical and enduring civilization capability retained by people.

TBFC target: Foundational learning and useful capability should be reachable as part of civilization life rather than purchased according to family income.

Access-gate research question: Which essential learning and capability routes are genuinely reachable regardless of family income, and where do fees, debt or paid enrichment create decisive access gaps?

Capacity+80.0
Reach+90.0
Friction-50.0
Return / Capability+70.0

Abundance Gap: -10.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Near-universal foundational access and a large education network remain strong, but fuel, transport, electricity and material shortages create substantial delivery friction.

Verified evidence

Cuba: education reach remains broad despite severe infrastructure and transport pressure

UNESCO SITEAL, using ONEI 2024 data, reports 10,903 educational establishments and historically near-universal early-childhood and primary enrollment. The 2026 school year opened for roughly 1.4 million students despite fuel, transportation and electricity shortages, showing strong institutional education reach operating under high practical friction.

UNESCO IIEP SITEAL — Cuba country profile · Reuters — Cuba readies school year despite scant supplies
4% weightMobility & Reachability
-1.0

Local, regional and national movement that connects people to family, services, work, learning and public life without consuming excessive time.

TBFC target: Ordinary local and regional movement should be available for family, care, learning and civic life without travel becoming a paywall.

Access-gate research question: Can ordinary people reach family, care, learning and public life without high recurring fares, vehicle costs, debt or fuel dependence?

Capacity+35.0
Reach+30.0
Friction-90.0
Return / Time+15.0

Abundance Gap: +5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Public transport is in acute crisis from fuel scarcity, maintenance constraints and vehicle shortages; ordinary people face long waits and expensive substitutes.

Verified evidence

Cuba: fuel scarcity and fleet deterioration have pushed public mobility into acute crisis

Reuters reported in August 2026 that the public transport system had effectively collapsed in many places, with residents waiting for hours at bus stops. Imported fuel sold on the informal market was far beyond the reach of an average state salary, while fuel shortages, spare-parts shortages and broken fleets sharply reduced ordinary mobility.

Reuters — US fuel exports to Cuba spur chaotic black market
8% weightFamily Formation, Continuity & Child Stability
+20.0

Conditions that let people form stable families, raise children, share parental time and continue family life without punishing material barriers.

TBFC target: People should be able to form, continue and multiply family life. Trott Bailey Family Civilization uses 5.0 children per woman as the fertility target; 2.1 is the replacement floor, not the aspiration, while housing, care, food and time should not be withheld behind financial thresholds.

Access-gate research question: How strongly do housing, childcare, health, food and work-income requirements delay or destabilize family formation and continuity, and is total fertility moving above replacement toward the 5.0-children-per-woman civilization target?

Capacity+60.0
Reach+55.0
Friction-75.0
Return / Continuity+30.0

Abundance Gap: +5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Family-policy institutions exist, but 1.29 fertility, record-low births, rapid aging and mass outmigration signal severe continuity pressure.

Verified evidence

Cuba: fertility, births and working-age population have fallen to historic lows

ONEI figures reported in 2026 put Cuba's effective population at 9,434,593 at the end of 2025, down by more than 313,000 in one year. The total fertility rate remained at 1.29 children per woman for a second year, the lowest in the official series since 1958, while the working-age population has contracted sharply. These are strong signals of family-continuity and demographic strain, even though Cuba maintains family and social-policy institutions.

EFE — Cuba closes 2025 with 68,051 births and 9.4 million inhabitants · UNFPA — Cuba country programme document
5% weightLand Access & Spatial Freedom
+26.5

Whether land and settlement choice reach ordinary people rather than opportunity being functionally trapped inside expensive commercial centres.

TBFC target: Suitable productive land and settlement opportunity should not be functionally reserved for those able to outbid everyone else.

Access-gate research question: Can ordinary families gain secure use of suitable productive ground without first accumulating enough money to purchase, finance or outbid others?

Capacity+70.0
Reach+45.0
Friction / Concentration-60.0
Return / Productive Ground+55.0

Abundance Gap: +25.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Usufruct programmes expand productive use of state land, but land choice and tenure remain heavily permission- and regulation-mediated.

Verified evidence

Cuba: state land can be assigned in usufruct, expanding productive access without creating broad private land freedom

FAO records Cuba's legal framework for delivering idle state land in usufruct and notes that tens of thousands of farms have been assigned to individuals and legal entities. This creates real productive-land access, but use remains permission-, tenure- and regulation-mediated rather than ordinary people having broad autonomous spatial choice.

FAOLEX — Cuba general profile and land legislation · FAO in Cuba — Cuba at a glance
6% weightPeace of Mind, Happiness, Beauty & Delight
+22.3

Peace of mind, social support, everyday safety, public beauty, recreation, nature, culture and delight reachable without constant payment.

TBFC target: Beauty, nature, recreation, rest and public delight should belong to ordinary life rather than appearing mainly after payment.

Access-gate research question: How much everyday rest, nature, recreation, culture and public beauty is freely reachable, rather than principally accessed through paid venues, travel or private property?

Capacity+65.0
Reach+55.0
Friction-80.0
Return / Delight+45.0

Abundance Gap: +10.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Culture, arts, sport and public-life capacity are substantial; current shortages, blackouts and mobility constraints sharply reduce daily peace of mind and reach.

Verified evidence

Cuba: deep cultural and public-life assets remain reachable, but daily shortages sharply reduce peace of mind

Cuba retains unusually strong cultural institutions and public arts traditions, including ballet, music, sport and community culture. In September 2026, AP documented the national ballet continuing through blackouts while transportation, food and household essentials were difficult to obtain. The cultural capacity is real, but current daily insecurity substantially reduces ordinary delight and peace of mind.

Associated Press — Cuba's cherished ballet tradition endures through daily blackouts and shortages
6% weightLiving Ground, Biodiversity & Resilience
+38.8

Whether soil, forests, wetlands, habitat, pollinators, species and water-holding landscapes are strengthening rather than being consumed.

TBFC target: Regenerating soil, water, habitat and food-bearing landscapes should be maintained as shared life-supporting capacity rather than only where a transaction makes them profitable.

Access-gate research question: Are regenerative land, water and habitat functions maintained as life-supporting infrastructure even when no direct commercial return is available?

Capacity+70.0
Reach / Ecological Function+65.0
Friction / Loss-45.0
Return / Regeneration+65.0

Abundance Gap: +5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Biodiversity and restoration capability are meaningful, while degraded land, invasive vegetation and repeated climate hazards remain significant pressures.

Verified evidence

Cuba: large restoration programmes confront degraded agricultural land and escalating climate exposure

FAO reports that invasive marabou covers vast tracts of formerly productive land and describes a Cuba–FAO Green Climate Fund programme begun in 2020 to restore productive landscapes and strengthen climate-resilient agriculture. The island retains major biodiversity and restoration capability, but land degradation, hurricanes, drought and energy constraints create substantial ecological friction.

FAO — The awakening for Cuban farms
5% weightJustice, Safety & Institutional Friction
+14.5

Physical safety, usable justice, legal identity, reliable public administration and low needless institutional burden.

TBFC target: Usable justice, legal identity, safety and ordinary administration should remain accessible regardless of wealth.

Access-gate research question: Do fees, legal costs, bail, fines, documentation costs or ability to hire expertise materially change access to justice, safety or public administration?

Capacity+65.0
Reach+45.0
Friction-85.0
Return / Reliability+25.0

Abundance Gap: +20.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Recorded violent-crime exposure is not exceptionally high by regional standards, but civil-liberties restrictions, detention and judicial-access concerns create major institutional friction.

Verified evidence

Cuba: relatively low recorded homicide coexists with heavy civil and institutional-rights friction

UN homicide data historically place Cuba well below the most violent countries in the region, but the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights reports continuing arbitrary restrictions on assembly and expression, arbitrary detention and deficient judicial guarantees for dissidents, activists, human-rights defenders and independent journalists. The score therefore separates everyday violent-crime exposure from institutional access and legal-reliability concerns.

Inter-American Commission on Human Rights — Annual Report 2025, Cuba · UN Data / UNODC — Intentional homicide victims
4% weightDurability, Repair & Material Return
+14.8

Whether useful materials, infrastructure and goods are maintained, repairable, recovered and cycled instead of repeatedly becoming waste.

TBFC target: Repair, maintenance and useful material circulation should protect capability instead of forcing repeated repurchase as the default route to continued use.

Access-gate research question: Do repair and maintenance remain practically accessible, or do pricing, proprietary restrictions and replacement incentives turn continued use into repeated purchasing?

Capacity+45.0
Reach+40.0
Friction / Waste-75.0
Return / Circularity+55.0

Abundance Gap: +5.0

TBF reading

Live-reviewed Cuba standalone research. Repair and reuse are culturally significant and circular-economy projects are active, but collection gaps and failing essential infrastructure show weak material and maintenance return.

Verified evidence

Cuba: repair culture and new circular-economy projects sit beside failing collection and aging infrastructure

UNDP is supporting circular-economy and plastic-waste management projects in Havana, including local reuse and material-recovery capacity. Yet UNDP also reported that Havana's November 2025 solid-waste collection volume still did not meet collection needs, while current water, power and transport failures show substantial maintenance deficits across essential infrastructure.

UNDP Cuba — Local solutions for plastic-waste management in Havana · Reuters — Viruses run rampant across Havana as water, power fails

Trott Bailey Family Civilization Target

The end state: life beyond monetary gatekeeping

Trott Bailey Family Civilization treats money as an exchange tool rather than a prerequisite for access to life. The long-run abundance target is that food, water, shelter, care, education, mobility, land access and ordinary public life remain reachable even when a person cannot pay.

This target is an authored civilization standard. The diagnostic evidence score can now draw from all 16 weighted categories. The five-part Money Gate remains a separate domestic threshold asking whether food, housing/land, healthcare, transportation and water/energy are genuinely reachable without payment before any civilization can cross zero.

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