Trott Bailey Family Abundance · Country Profile

Nigeria 🇳🇬

Nigeria currently ranks #216 of 243 on the World Wealthiest Country Abundance Scorecard, scoring -78.63. This country is money-gated (1.00/20: essential access still faces payment or service barriers), strongest in Welcome and weakest in Water across 16 evidence categories.

Ranked by the Trott Bailey Family — the world’s wealthiest family in Abundance. Wealth means access to life and the ability to live it, not GDP or money.

Country profile & diagnostic reading

Data updatedEvidence through 17 Oct 2026
TBF Abundance Score
-78.6
How the headline score is calculated

Every category retains four original evidence beleshkies. The existing category adjustments are allocated among those beleshkies, within their scoring limits. Each adjusted beleshky receives the national Money Gate conversion, and four weighted gated contributions form its category result. The category results then form the national headline score, with historic two-decimal evidence rounding retained. Friction is not deducted twice.

Current evidence: -18.6 · Money Gate: 1.00/20 · Headline: -78.6.

The fully detailed gate formula is explained in the Money Gate method; no international score can independently clear it.

TBF Rank

#216of 243

Global standing based on life reachability

243 ranked · 0 published awaiting scores · 0 awaiting research · 243 directory entries

NigeriaLast recorded move: down from #215 to #216.Recent recorded movements
  1. #215 → #21621 Oct 2026 · 07:24 GMT-0500
  2. #214 → #21521 Oct 2026 · 05:21 GMT-0500
  3. #202 → #21420 Oct 2026 · 19:52 GMT-0500
  4. #202 → #20620 Oct 2026 · 19:52 GMT-0500

Rank journey · newest first

Recorded period 1 of 79: rank 187. 6 Oct 2026 · 18:46 GMT-0500Recorded period 2 of 79: rank 192. 6 Oct 2026 · 19:42 GMT-0500Recorded period 3 of 79: rank 192. 9 Oct 2026 · 06:43 GMT-0500 – 11 Oct 2026 · 12:02 GMT-0500Recorded period 4 of 79: rank 191. 11 Oct 2026 · 12:02 GMT-0500 – 11 Oct 2026 · 12:02 GMT-0500Recorded period 5 of 79: rank 192. 11 Oct 2026 · 12:02 GMT-0500 – 11 Oct 2026 · 12:02 GMT-0500Recorded period 6 of 79: rank 191. 11 Oct 2026 · 12:02 GMT-0500 – 11 Oct 2026 · 12:02 GMT-0500Recorded period 7 of 79: rank 188. 11 Oct 2026 · 12:02 GMT-0500 – 11 Oct 2026 · 12:03 GMT-0500Recorded period 8 of 79: rank 187. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 9 of 79: rank 186. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 10 of 79: rank 187. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 11 of 79: rank 186. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 12 of 79: rank 185. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 13 of 79: rank 186. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 14 of 79: rank 187. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 15 of 79: rank 186. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 16 of 79: rank 185. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 17 of 79: rank 184. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 18 of 79: rank 183. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 19 of 79: rank 182. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 20 of 79: rank 181. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500Recorded period 21 of 79: rank 186. 12 Oct 2026 · 05:13 GMT-0500 – 12 Oct 2026 · 06:17 GMT-0500Recorded period 22 of 79: rank 185. 18 Oct 2026 · 06:33 GMT-0500 – 18 Oct 2026 · 06:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 23 of 79: rank 214. 18 Oct 2026 · 11:57 GMT-0500 – 18 Oct 2026 · 11:57 GMT-0500Recorded period 24 of 79: rank 213. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 25 of 79: rank 212. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500 – 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 26 of 79: rank 211. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500 – 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 27 of 79: rank 210. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500 – 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 28 of 79: rank 209. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500 – 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 29 of 79: rank 208. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 30 of 79: rank 207. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 31 of 79: rank 206. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 32 of 79: rank 205. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 33 of 79: rank 204. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 34 of 79: rank 203. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500 – 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 35 of 79: rank 202. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500 – 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 36 of 79: rank 201. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 37 of 79: rank 200. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 38 of 79: rank 199. 18 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMT-0500Recorded period 39 of 79: rank 198. 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500Recorded period 40 of 79: rank 197. 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500 – 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500Recorded period 41 of 79: rank 196. 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500Recorded period 42 of 79: rank 195. 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500 – 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500Recorded period 43 of 79: rank 194. 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500Recorded period 44 of 79: rank 193. 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500Recorded period 45 of 79: rank 192. 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500Recorded period 46 of 79: rank 191. 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500 – 19 Oct 2026 · 11:19 GMT-0500Recorded period 47 of 79: rank 190. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:32 GMT-0500Recorded period 48 of 79: rank 189. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 49 of 79: rank 188. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 50 of 79: rank 187. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 51 of 79: rank 186. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 52 of 79: rank 185. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 53 of 79: rank 184. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 54 of 79: rank 183. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500 – 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 55 of 79: rank 182. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 56 of 79: rank 181. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500 – 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 57 of 79: rank 180. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 58 of 79: rank 179. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500 – 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 59 of 79: rank 178. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 60 of 79: rank 177. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500 – 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 61 of 79: rank 176. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 62 of 79: rank 175. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 63 of 79: rank 174. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 64 of 79: rank 173. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 65 of 79: rank 172. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 66 of 79: rank 171. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 67 of 79: rank 170. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500 – 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 68 of 79: rank 169. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 69 of 79: rank 168. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 70 of 79: rank 167. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 71 of 79: rank 165. 20 Oct 2026 · 08:33 GMT-0500Recorded period 72 of 79: rank 164. 20 Oct 2026 · 10:42 GMT-0500Recorded period 73 of 79: rank 162. 20 Oct 2026 · 10:42 GMT-0500Recorded period 74 of 79: rank 160. 20 Oct 2026 · 10:42 GMT-0500Recorded period 75 of 79: rank 184. 20 Oct 2026 · 19:52 GMT-0500Recorded period 76 of 79: rank 202. 20 Oct 2026 · 19:52 GMT-0500Recorded period 77 of 79: rank 206. 20 Oct 2026 · 19:52 GMT-0500Recorded period 78 of 79: rank 215. 21 Oct 2026 · 05:21 GMT-0500Recorded period 79 of 79: rank 216. 21 Oct 2026 · 07:24 GMT-0500NOW #216Oct 2026Oct 2026

Dated changes with readable spacing · diagonal lines show rank movement · horizontal lines show held positions · scroll left for earlier dates.

View detailed rank & score history ↗

Research Coverage

100%
Coverage calculation

Sum of each published category weight × its documented scoring coverage ÷ 100. The percentage measures completed scoring slots, not independent verification of every claim. For the current country:

9.0 × 100.0% + 8.0 × 100.0% + 9.0 × 100.0% + 6.0 × 100.0% + 5.0 × 100.0% + 7.0 × 100.0% + 6.0 × 100.0% + 4.0 × 100.0% + 8.0 × 100.0% + 5.0 × 100.0% + 6.0 × 100.0% + 6.0 × 100.0% + 5.0 × 100.0% + 4.0 × 100.0% + 6.0 × 100.0% + 6.0 × 100.0% = 100.00% weighted coverage

Completion coverage is not evidence certainty. Every evaluated rail may use directly observed evidence, relevant proxies, or transparently labeled extrapolation. A score is not a measured population percentage merely because its source is verified.

Unreviewed international categories do not receive fabricated coverage or zero scores.

64 / 64 rails scored · 16 / 16 categories assessed (100% scoring completion). Nigeria's latest four-rail findings identify primary and secondary sources and explicitly label the scored inference. 100% means every scoring decision is complete, not that all free-access population rates were directly measured. Heads of state may appeal or submit evidence for recalculation.

14 / 14 domestic categories scored · 2 / 2 international categories scored

GDP and money rank

#47

GDP and money are context, not the World Wealthiest Country Abundance ranking

Money Gate · Overall Gate 0.7.0

Five basics stand between this country and zero

0.3 / 4

Food

Why 0.3 / 4?

National Home Grown School Feeding records a one-meal targeted route for participating primary pupils, but implementation continuity and current coverage are not proven nationally.

Point calculation

0.25 ÷ 4 × 100 = 6.25% of this Money Gate rail. Five rails together can earn 20/20.

Points are assigned from the verified no-payment access rubric and actual national reach, not from the percentage alone.

Sources for this gate
Gate finding reviewed 2026-10-11
0.0 / 4

Housing / Land

Why 0.0 / 4?

Housing programmes and private construction exist, but no source here verifies a nationwide entitlement to no-payment family housing or land.

Point calculation

0.00 ÷ 4 × 100 = 0.00% of this Money Gate rail. Five rails together can earn 20/20.

Points are assigned from the verified no-payment access rubric and actual national reach, not from the percentage alone.

Sources for this gate
Gate finding reviewed 2026-10-11
0.8 / 4

Healthcare

Why 0.8 / 4?

The NHIA Vulnerable Group Fund can pay premiums for indigent and vulnerable people; state schemes vary and household reach is restricted.

Point calculation

0.75 ÷ 4 × 100 = 18.75% of this Money Gate rail. Five rails together can earn 20/20.

Points are assigned from the verified no-payment access rubric and actual national reach, not from the percentage alone.

Sources for this gate
Gate finding reviewed 2026-10-11
0.0 / 4

Transportation

Why 0.0 / 4?

Ordinary public transport entails fares, without a demonstrated nationwide zero-fare transport right.

Point calculation

0.00 ÷ 4 × 100 = 0.00% of this Money Gate rail. Five rails together can earn 20/20.

Points are assigned from the verified no-payment access rubric and actual national reach, not from the percentage alone.

Gate finding reviewed 2026-10-11
0.0 / 4

Water / Energy

Why 0.0 / 4?

UNICEF documents severe water-sanitation gaps and dependent local supply; the evidence does not establish free nationwide household water and electricity.

Point calculation

0.00 ÷ 4 × 100 = 0.00% of this Money Gate rail. Five rails together can earn 20/20.

Points are assigned from the verified no-payment access rubric and actual national reach, not from the percentage alone.

Sources for this gate
Gate finding reviewed 2026-10-11
Money Gate score
  • Food0.3 / 4
  • Housing / Land0.0 / 4
  • Healthcare0.8 / 4
  • Transportation0.0 / 4
  • Water / Energy0.0 / 4
  • Money still needed19.0 / 20

Grey means points not yet earned toward fully money-free basic life—not a cash price or currency sum.

Why 1.0 / 20?

The Money Gate total is the sum of the five direct 0–4 readings. Every basic need remains visible separately so one strong area cannot hide another weak one.

Actual calculation

Food 0.25 + Housing / Land 0.00 + Healthcare 0.75 + Transportation 0.00 + Water / Energy 0.00 = 1.00 / 20

A country remains money-gated until the total reaches 20 / 20.

Friction Economy Pressure
87.5 / 100
Why 87.5 / 100?

Friction is visible as its own 0–100 contextual reading from domestic category rails. Its effect is already in the evidence score and is not applied to the ceiling again.

Actual calculation

(100 - -75.00) ÷ 2 = 87.50 / 100

The weighted Friction rail comes from the published domestic category rails.

Money-gated ceiling
-47.5
Why -47.5?

Each Money Gate point raises the negative ceiling by 2.5 points: 0/20 → −50, 7/20 → −32.5, 10/20 → −25, 19.5/20 → −1.25. At 20/20 the gate is removed, so the evidence score becomes the headline directly.

Actual calculation

-50 + 2.5 × 1.00 = -47.5

16-category profile

All categories at a glance

All sixteen categories use the −100 to +100 evidence scale. International Welcome and External Footprint are assessed alongside the domestic categories. Select a category to examine the scoring and evidence.

Chart view

Default view shows how each category is compressed by the current Money Gate. Switch to preview the same category evidence if the gate were lifted.

Category readings & evidence

Open any category for the full diagnostic reading

9% weight Human Time & Burden Return
-80.3↓

Money-gated · Evidence -25.0

Score breakdown

Human Time & Burden Return

-80.3Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Capacity scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-67.2× 25%= -16.8 points
Exact point calculation

25.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 6.25 weighted points

Original evidence +25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +25.0; Money-gated reading -67.2 × 25% = -16.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 01, rail 1: +25/100. Nigeria has substantial recorded work participation, but a large informal sector and real-income pressure; working hours and family-support capacity cannot be equated with restored family time. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey Q2 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 01 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, the World Bank notes insufficient productive jobs and persistent poverty, limiting family time and mobility even where work exists.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Reach scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 35%= -28.1 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -8.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 35% = -28.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 01, rail 2: -25/100. Recorded employment does not establish that families have protected shared contribution time, adequate caregiving services or freely accessible childcare; reach is inferred as incomplete. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey Q2 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 01 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction 25%
See all nine Friction scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 01, rail 3: -75/100. Nigeria continues to face food and living costs and labour pressure; paid employment plus household care work create considerable friction rather than an observed nationwide family-time release. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 01 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

The NBS Nigeria Labour Force Survey Q1 2024 questionnaire specifically records main and secondary jobs, working time, and income. Q1 2024 informality was 92.7%; this does not prove the share of people taking a second job to buy essentials.

🤔
Return / Regeneration 15%
See all nine Return / Regeneration scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 01, rail 4: -25/100. Children and parents show informal learning and support capacity, but nationwide proof that Shubaka-like family contribution restores time and improves wellbeing was not located. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey Q2 2024) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 01 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -16.80 + -28.11 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -80.3

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -25.0. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -25.0. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -80.3.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-25.0 Original evidence category score-25.0 Contribution to national evidence score-2.3
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 6.25 + -8.75 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -25.00

Base: -25.00 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -25.0 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -25.00 × (9.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -2.25 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 9% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 9.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -2.3 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +50.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 01 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 01, rail 4: -25/100. Children and parents show informal learning and support capacity, but nationwide proof that Shubaka-like family contribution restores time and improves wellbeing was not located. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey Q2 2024) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 01 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025 · Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey Q2 2024
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 01 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 01, rail 3: -75/100. Nigeria continues to face food and living costs and labour pressure; paid employment plus household care work create considerable friction rather than an observed nationwide family-time release. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 01 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026 · Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 01 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 01, rail 2: -25/100. Recorded employment does not establish that families have protected shared contribution time, adequate caregiving services or freely accessible childcare; reach is inferred as incomplete. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey Q2 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 01 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey Q2 2024 · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 01 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 01, rail 1: +25/100. Nigeria has substantial recorded work participation, but a large informal sector and real-income pressure; working hours and family-support capacity cannot be equated with restored family time. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey Q2 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 01 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey Q2 2024 · World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty
2026 full review — Nigeria — human-time-burden new source review

For Nigeria, the World Bank notes insufficient productive jobs and persistent poverty, limiting family time and mobility even where work exists.

2026-10-11 World Bank Nigeria country overview
2026 reset audit — Nigeria — family time across work and home

The NBS Nigeria Labour Force Survey Q1 2024 questionnaire specifically records main and secondary jobs, working time, and income. Q1 2024 informality was 92.7%; this does not prove the share of people taking a second job to buy essentials.

2024-03-31 Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics

Published indicators

Employment-to-population ratio76.10 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
Unemployment rate4.30 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
Time-related underemployment9.20 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
Informal employment93.00 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
Wage employment share14.40 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
Youth not in employment, education or training12.50 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
8% weight Housing, Shelter & Housing Reach
-80.3↓

Money-gated · Evidence -25.0

Score breakdown

Housing, Shelter & Housing Reach

-80.3Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Housing Capacity scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-67.2× 25%= -16.8 points
Exact point calculation

25.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 6.25 weighted points

Original evidence +25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +25.0; Money-gated reading -67.2 × 25% = -16.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 02, rail 1: +25/100. Housing capital spending and private construction show functioning capacity, but cannot certify a prepared home available to every couple. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 02 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026 Nigeria review — severe poverty constrains nonpayment shelter for many households; no specific no-fee housing programme documented in this source.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Housing Reach scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 35%= -28.1 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

The recorded value corresponds to a Reach-ladder step. The country evidence explains its practical access conditions.

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

Linked direct Money Gate: Housing / Land 0.00/4 with gate-specific source link. Physical reach can exist with paid access. Free-access Reach tiers must agree with this gate’s independently sourced no-payment population assessment. 4/4 is now reserved for reliable, accessible, universally free access. Neither score is copied blindly from the other.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -8.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 35% = -28.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 02, rail 2: -25/100. Housing investment and widespread child multidimensional poverty coexist; no nationally measured free, secure family shelter-and-land population share is established. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 02 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction 25%
See all nine Housing Friction scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 02, rail 3: -75/100. High poverty, costs and inflation burden the ability to obtain and maintain shelter; TBF score is not an official rent-to-income statistic. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 02 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Return / Durability 15%
See all nine Housing Return / Durability scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 02, rail 4: -25/100. Settlement and housing policies provide partial continuity, yet services do not demonstrate unconditional lifelong shelter and maintenance for every family. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 02 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -16.80 + -28.11 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -80.3

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -25.0. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -25.0. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -80.3.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-25.0 Original evidence category score-25.0 Contribution to national evidence score-2.0
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 6.25 + -8.75 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -25.00

Base: -25.00 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -25.0 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -25.00 × (8.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -2.00 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 8% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 8.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -2.0 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +50.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 02 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 02, rail 4: -25/100. Settlement and housing policies provide partial continuity, yet services do not demonstrate unconditional lifelong shelter and maintenance for every family. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 02 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025 · World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 02 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 02, rail 3: -75/100. High poverty, costs and inflation burden the ability to obtain and maintain shelter; TBF score is not an official rent-to-income statistic. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 02 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty · Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 02 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 02, rail 2: -25/100. Housing investment and widespread child multidimensional poverty coexist; no nationally measured free, secure family shelter-and-land population share is established. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 02 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 02 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 02, rail 1: +25/100. Housing capital spending and private construction show functioning capacity, but cannot certify a prepared home available to every couple. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 02 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026 · World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty
2026 full review — Nigeria — housing-shelter-reach new source review

2026 Nigeria review — severe poverty constrains nonpayment shelter for many households; no specific no-fee housing programme documented in this source.

2026-10-11 World Bank Nigeria country overview

Published indicators

Households owning dwelling70.40 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
Urban households owning dwelling49.10 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
Rural households owning dwelling80.10 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
Households without toilet facility25.00 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
Households disposing refuse in bushes or streets45.60 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
9% weight Food, Nourishment & Free Food Abundance
-77.9↓

Money-gated · Evidence -15.8

Score breakdown

Food, Nourishment & Free Food Abundance

-77.9Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Food Capacity scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-59.8× 25%= -15.0 points
Exact point calculation

50.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 12.50 weighted points

Original evidence +50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +53.0; Money-gated reading -59.8 × 25% = -15.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 03, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has major agricultural and food-production potential while 34.7–35 million people face high acute food insecurity in 2026; physical food capacity and nourishment reach are distinct. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 03 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

Nigeria has extensive crop, livestock and fisheries capability, but current access outcomes remain poor enough that capacity cannot be treated as nourishment reach.

Nigeria has extensive crop, livestock and fisheries capability, but current access outcomes remain poor enough that capacity cannot be treated as nourishment reach.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Food Reach scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-79.5× 35%= -27.8 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

The recorded value corresponds to a Reach-ladder step. The country evidence explains its practical access conditions.

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

Linked direct Money Gate: Food 0.25/4 with gate-specific source link. Physical reach can exist with paid access. Free-access Reach tiers must agree with this gate’s independently sourced no-payment population assessment. 4/4 is now reserved for reliable, accessible, universally free access. Neither score is copied blindly from the other.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -8.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -22.0; Money-gated reading -79.5 × 35% = -27.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 03, rail 2: -25/100. Emergency nutrition and local programmes do not demonstrate a universal, steady money-free food pathway for complete households; coverage inferred as partial. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 03 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction / Waste 25%
See all nine Food Friction / Waste scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-92.7× 25%= -23.2 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -72.0; Money-gated reading -92.7 × 25% = -23.2 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 03, rail 3: -75/100. Conflict, displacement, high food costs and losses make daily nourishment difficult for many; the reported 2026 crisis supports severe Friction. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 03 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Return / Multiplication 15%
See all nine Food Return / Multiplication scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-79.5× 15%= -11.9 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -22.0; Money-gated reading -79.5 × 15% = -11.9 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 03, rail 4: -25/100. Farmer support and resilience initiatives exist, but broad stable soil-return, reserves, free circulation and disaster recovery are not demonstrated nationally. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 03 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -14.96 + -27.83 + -23.16 + -11.93 = -77.9

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -18.8. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): +3.0. Effective evidence: -15.8. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -77.9.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-18.8 Verified Adoption bonus+1.5 Original evidence category score-17.3 Contribution to national evidence score-1.6
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 12.50 + -8.75 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -18.75

Base: -18.75 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +1.50 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -17.3 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -17.25 × (9.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -1.55 points

Why Adoption adds points

Nigerian agricultural publication carried the Trott Bailey Abundance Principle directly into a Nigeria food-security argument, including free food and measurement beyond GDP.

For Nigeria, this category carries 9% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 9.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -1.6 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +117.3

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 03 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 03, rail 4: -25/100. Farmer support and resilience initiatives exist, but broad stable soil-return, reserves, free circulation and disaster recovery are not demonstrated nationally. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 03 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026 · World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 03 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 03, rail 3: -75/100. Conflict, displacement, high food costs and losses make daily nourishment difficult for many; the reported 2026 crisis supports severe Friction. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 03 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026 · Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 03 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 03, rail 2: -25/100. Emergency nutrition and local programmes do not demonstrate a universal, steady money-free food pathway for complete households; coverage inferred as partial. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 03 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026 · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 03 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 03, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has major agricultural and food-production potential while 34.7–35 million people face high acute food insecurity in 2026; physical food capacity and nourishment reach are distinct. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 03 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026 · World Food Programme Nigeria country brief 2026
2026 full review — Nigeria — food-nourishment-free-food domestic evidence retained

Nigeria has extensive crop, livestock and fisheries capability, but current access outcomes remain poor enough that capacity cannot be treated as nourishment reach.

National Bureau of Statistics / World Bank
Large domestic agricultural base remains a real capacity

Nigeria has extensive crop, livestock and fisheries capability, but current access outcomes remain poor enough that capacity cannot be treated as nourishment reach.

National Bureau of Statistics / World Bank

Published indicators

People projected in Crisis-or-worse acute food insecurity36.30 million people

FAO · 2026

Source
Analysed population projected in Crisis-or-worse17.00 percent

FAO · 2026

Source
Children under 5 stunted40.00 percent

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
Children under 5 wasted8.00 percent

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
Women meeting minimum dietary diversity30.00 percent

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
Adoption: 1 archived public signal and source

Publications and documented uptake are archived for this particular category. Only independently verified, eligible signals can contribute to its bounded Adoption bonus; other records remain visible without assigning points.

FarmingFarmersFarms The Abundance Principle: Why Nigeria’s future depends on free food, not GDP

Nigerian agricultural publication carried the Trott Bailey Abundance Principle directly into a Nigeria food-security argument, including free food and measurement beyond GDP.

Eligible signal · authority value +1.5 before category cap

Read original publication
6% weight Water & Sanitation Abundance
-82.6↓

Money-gated · Evidence -33.8

Score breakdown

Water & Sanitation Abundance

-82.6Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Water & Sanitation Capacity scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-67.2× 25%= -16.8 points
Exact point calculation

25.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 6.25 weighted points

Original evidence +25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +25.0; Money-gated reading -67.2 × 25% = -16.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 04, rail 1: +25/100. WHO/UNICEF household monitoring records functioning water and sanitation investments but large infrastructure and hygiene gaps; full safe combined capacity is absent. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025 water and sanitation household report) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria water, sanitation and hygiene) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 04 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, uNICEF records widespread unmet water and sanitation access and uneven services; a no-payment utility right has not been established.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Water & Sanitation Reach scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-86.9× 35%= -30.4 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

The recorded value corresponds to a Reach-ladder step. The country evidence explains its practical access conditions.

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

Linked direct Money Gate: Water / Energy 0.00/4 with gate-specific source link. Physical reach can exist with paid access. Free-access Reach tiers must agree with this gate’s independently sourced no-payment population assessment. 4/4 is now reserved for reliable, accessible, universally free access. Neither score is copied blindly from the other.

Water and energy share one combined four-point gate; the direct audit must show which part reaches families without payment.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-50.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -17.50 weighted points

Original evidence -50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -50.0; Money-gated reading -86.9 × 35% = -30.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 04, rail 2: -50/100. Drinking-water, sanitation and hygiene coverage are different indicators; combined household safe service and money-free access cannot be assumed from any single figure. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025 water and sanitation household report) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 04 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction / Loss 25%
See all nine Water & Sanitation Friction / Loss scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 04, rail 3: -75/100. Unsafe water/sanitation access, collection and household service burdens remain important; this score is a proxy-based access-friction judgement. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigeria water, sanitation and hygiene) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 04 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Return / Regeneration 15%
See all nine Water & Sanitation Return / Regeneration scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 04, rail 4: -25/100. Investments and household practices support some treated return, but national proof of safe reuse, watershed recovery and enduring water security is incomplete. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025 water and sanitation household report) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 04 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -16.80 + -30.41 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -82.6

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -33.8. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -33.8. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -82.6.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-33.8 Original evidence category score-33.8 Contribution to national evidence score-2.0
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 6.25 + -17.50 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -33.75

Base: -33.75 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -33.8 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -33.75 × (6.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -2.03 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 6% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 6.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -2.0 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +75.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 04 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 04, rail 4: -25/100. Investments and household practices support some treated return, but national proof of safe reuse, watershed recovery and enduring water security is incomplete. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025 water and sanitation household report) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 04 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025 water and sanitation household report · World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 04 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 04, rail 3: -75/100. Unsafe water/sanitation access, collection and household service burdens remain important; this score is a proxy-based access-friction judgement. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigeria water, sanitation and hygiene) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 04 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Nigeria water, sanitation and hygiene · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 04 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 04, rail 2: -50/100. Drinking-water, sanitation and hygiene coverage are different indicators; combined household safe service and money-free access cannot be assumed from any single figure. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025 water and sanitation household report) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 04 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025 water and sanitation household report · UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 04 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 04, rail 1: +25/100. WHO/UNICEF household monitoring records functioning water and sanitation investments but large infrastructure and hygiene gaps; full safe combined capacity is absent. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025 water and sanitation household report) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria water, sanitation and hygiene) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 04 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025 water and sanitation household report · UNICEF Nigeria water, sanitation and hygiene
2026 full review — Nigeria — water-sanitation new source review

For Nigeria, uNICEF records widespread unmet water and sanitation access and uneven services; a no-payment utility right has not been established.

2026-10-11 UNICEF Nigeria WASH

Published indicators

Population using safely managed drinking water29.90 percent

United Nations Statistics Division · 2024

Source
Population using safely managed sanitation32.20 percent

United Nations Statistics Division · 2024

Source
Population with basic handwashing facilities on premises31.30 percent

United Nations Statistics Division · 2024

Source
Safely treated domestic wastewater flows40.70 percent

United Nations Statistics Division · 2024

Source
5% weight Energy & Household Capability
-81.0↓

Money-gated · Evidence -27.5

Score breakdown

Energy & Household Capability

-81.0Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Energy Capacity scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-60.6× 25%= -15.2 points
Exact point calculation

50.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 12.50 weighted points

Original evidence +50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +50.0; Money-gated reading -60.6 × 25% = -15.2 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 05, rail 1: +50/100. 62.5% of residents had electricity access in 2024, but clean-cooking access was only about 28%; generation/connection capacity is not a full household energy service. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria electricity reach 62.5% in 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank 2024 clean-cooking access Nigeria 28%) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 05 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

The World Bank Nigeria overview notes broad service-delivery and income constraints; this source alone cannot establish stable or no-cost household power access.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Energy Reach scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-86.9× 35%= -30.4 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

The recorded value corresponds to a Reach-ladder step. The country evidence explains its practical access conditions.

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

Linked direct Money Gate: Water / Energy 0.00/4 with gate-specific source link. Physical reach can exist with paid access. Free-access Reach tiers must agree with this gate’s independently sourced no-payment population assessment. 4/4 is now reserved for reliable, accessible, universally free access. Neither score is copied blindly from the other.

Water and energy share one combined four-point gate; the direct audit must show which part reaches families without payment.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-50.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -17.50 weighted points

Original evidence -50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -50.0; Money-gated reading -86.9 × 35% = -30.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 05, rail 2: -50/100. The effective electricity-plus-clean-cooking intersection cannot exceed the smaller coverage figure; no verified nationwide free energy subgroup or uninterrupted full service is available. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria electricity reach 62.5% in 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank 2024 clean-cooking access Nigeria 28%) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 05 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction 25%
See all nine Energy Friction scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 05, rail 3: -75/100. Fuel costs, outages and low clean-cooking reach limit appliances and safe household cooking; neither a utility grid nor subsidy alone eliminates the gate. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 05 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Return / Burden Removed 15%
See all nine Energy Return / Burden Removed scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 05, rail 4: -25/100. Off-grid and grid investments can help household capability, but large clean-cooking gaps prevent a claim of universal energy-enabled family-time return. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria electricity reach 62.5% in 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank 2024 clean-cooking access Nigeria 28%) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 05 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -15.16 + -30.41 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -81.0

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -27.5. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -27.5. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -81.0.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-27.5 Original evidence category score-27.5 Contribution to national evidence score-1.4
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 12.50 + -17.50 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -27.50

Base: -27.50 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -27.5 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -27.50 × (5.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -1.38 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 5% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 5.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -1.4 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +100.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 05 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 05, rail 4: -25/100. Off-grid and grid investments can help household capability, but large clean-cooking gaps prevent a claim of universal energy-enabled family-time return. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria electricity reach 62.5% in 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank 2024 clean-cooking access Nigeria 28%) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 05 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank Nigeria electricity reach 62.5% in 2024 · World Bank 2024 clean-cooking access Nigeria 28%
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 05 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 05, rail 3: -75/100. Fuel costs, outages and low clean-cooking reach limit appliances and safe household cooking; neither a utility grid nor subsidy alone eliminates the gate. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 05 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters · World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 05 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 05, rail 2: -50/100. The effective electricity-plus-clean-cooking intersection cannot exceed the smaller coverage figure; no verified nationwide free energy subgroup or uninterrupted full service is available. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria electricity reach 62.5% in 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank 2024 clean-cooking access Nigeria 28%) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 05 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank Nigeria electricity reach 62.5% in 2024 · World Bank 2024 clean-cooking access Nigeria 28%
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 05 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 05, rail 1: +50/100. 62.5% of residents had electricity access in 2024, but clean-cooking access was only about 28%; generation/connection capacity is not a full household energy service. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria electricity reach 62.5% in 2024) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank 2024 clean-cooking access Nigeria 28%) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 05 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank Nigeria electricity reach 62.5% in 2024 · World Bank 2024 clean-cooking access Nigeria 28%
2026 full review — Nigeria — energy-household-capability new source review

The World Bank Nigeria overview notes broad service-delivery and income constraints; this source alone cannot establish stable or no-cost household power access.

2026-10-11 World Bank Nigeria country overview

Published indicators

Households with electricity55.20 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare / DHS · 2024

Source
Urban households with electricity79.80 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare / DHS · 2024

Source
Rural households with electricity29.90 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare / DHS · 2024

Source
Households with earth or sand floor22.20 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare / DHS · 2024

Source
Average household power blackouts per week6.70 blackouts/week

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
7% weight Health & Care Reach
-81.0↓

Money-gated · Evidence -27.5

Score breakdown

Health & Care Reach

-81.0Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Health & Care Capacity scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-60.6× 25%= -15.2 points
Exact point calculation

50.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 12.50 weighted points

Original evidence +50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +50.0; Money-gated reading -60.6 × 25% = -15.2 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 06, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has expanding maternal-care facilities, trained professionals and insurance initiatives; the NHIA says over 93,000 mothers and newborns were reached by targeted programmes by August 2026. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (National Health Insurance Authority 2026 maternal-care results) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (WHO Africa Nigerian health financing reform August 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 06 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, nHIA describes a Vulnerable Group Fund for premium support, with state eligibility rules and uneven service reach.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Health & Care Reach scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-86.9× 35%= -30.4 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

The recorded value corresponds to a Reach-ladder step. The country evidence explains its practical access conditions.

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

Linked direct Money Gate: Healthcare 0.75/4 with gate-specific source link. Physical reach can exist with paid access. Free-access Reach tiers must agree with this gate’s independently sourced no-payment population assessment. 4/4 is now reserved for reliable, accessible, universally free access. Neither score is copied blindly from the other.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-50.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -17.50 weighted points

Original evidence -50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -50.0; Money-gated reading -86.9 × 35% = -30.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 06, rail 2: -50/100. Targeted free obstetric services are meaningful but do not give a measured denominator for free medicines, dentistry, referral, chronic or emergency treatment nationally. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (National Health Insurance Authority 2026 maternal-care results) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria health indicators under-five mortality) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 06 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction 25%
See all nine Health & Care Friction scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 06, rail 3: -75/100. WHO still stresses financing reform; the UNICEF under-five mortality profile and financial hardship show substantial continuing care barriers. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (WHO Africa Nigerian health financing reform August 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria health indicators under-five mortality) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 06 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Return / Prevention 15%
See all nine Health & Care Return / Prevention scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 06, rail 4: -25/100. Targeted treatment and financing gains support some returns; national Health Upon Health continuity, prevention and rehabilitation outcomes remain underdocumented. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (National Health Insurance Authority 2026 maternal-care results) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (WHO Africa Nigerian health financing reform August 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 06 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -15.16 + -30.41 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -81.0

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -27.5. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -27.5. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -81.0.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-27.5 Original evidence category score-27.5 Contribution to national evidence score-1.9
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 12.50 + -17.50 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -27.50

Base: -27.50 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -27.5 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -27.50 × (7.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -1.93 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 7% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 7.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -1.9 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +100.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 06 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 06, rail 4: -25/100. Targeted treatment and financing gains support some returns; national Health Upon Health continuity, prevention and rehabilitation outcomes remain underdocumented. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (National Health Insurance Authority 2026 maternal-care results) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (WHO Africa Nigerian health financing reform August 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 06 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 National Health Insurance Authority 2026 maternal-care results · WHO Africa Nigerian health financing reform August 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 06 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 06, rail 3: -75/100. WHO still stresses financing reform; the UNICEF under-five mortality profile and financial hardship show substantial continuing care barriers. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (WHO Africa Nigerian health financing reform August 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria health indicators under-five mortality) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 06 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 WHO Africa Nigerian health financing reform August 2026 · UNICEF Nigeria health indicators under-five mortality
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 06 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 06, rail 2: -50/100. Targeted free obstetric services are meaningful but do not give a measured denominator for free medicines, dentistry, referral, chronic or emergency treatment nationally. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (National Health Insurance Authority 2026 maternal-care results) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria health indicators under-five mortality) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 06 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 National Health Insurance Authority 2026 maternal-care results · UNICEF Nigeria health indicators under-five mortality
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 06 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 06, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has expanding maternal-care facilities, trained professionals and insurance initiatives; the NHIA says over 93,000 mothers and newborns were reached by targeted programmes by August 2026. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (National Health Insurance Authority 2026 maternal-care results) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (WHO Africa Nigerian health financing reform August 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 06 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 National Health Insurance Authority 2026 maternal-care results · WHO Africa Nigerian health financing reform August 2026
2026 full review — Nigeria — health-care-reach new source review

For Nigeria, nHIA describes a Vulnerable Group Fund for premium support, with state eligibility rules and uneven service reach.

2026-10-11 Nigeria National Health Insurance Authority

Published indicators

Antenatal care coverage63.00 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare · 2024

Source
Births attended by skilled personnel46.00 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare · 2024

Source
Postnatal coverage within two days42.00 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare · 2024

Source
Under-five mortality rate110.00 deaths per 1,000 live births

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare · 2024

Source
Neonatal mortality rate41.00 deaths per 1,000 live births

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare · 2024

Source
6% weight Education & Human Capability
-81.0↓

Money-gated · Evidence -27.5

Score breakdown

Education & Human Capability

-81.0Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Education & Human Capability Capacity levels and how to improve ↗
-60.6× 25%= -15.2 points
Exact point calculation

50.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 12.50 weighted points

Original evidence +50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +50.0; Money-gated reading -60.6 × 25% = -15.2 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 07, rail 1: +50/100. The country has schools and learning programmes, but 2026 UNICEF financing analysis describes serious low-learning outcomes and funding constraints. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (UNICEF Public Finance for Basic Education in Nigeria 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria digital learning and out-of-school children) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 07 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, world Bank reports new 2025 education-system financing for basic learning and underserved children, an investment commitment rather than proven universal outcome.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Education & Human Capability Reach levels and how to improve ↗
-86.9× 35%= -30.4 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-50.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -17.50 weighted points

Original evidence -50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -50.0; Money-gated reading -86.9 × 35% = -30.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 07, rail 2: -50/100. A significant share of primary-age children remain out of school and basic learning gaps remain; AGILE scholarship coverage is not universal actual learning access. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigeria digital learning and out-of-school children) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria AGILE programme country results) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 07 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction 25%
See all nine Education & Human Capability Friction levels and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 07, rail 3: -75/100. UNICEF reports large failure rates on minimum mathematics proficiency; fees, geography, teacher shortages and safety create high learning friction. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (UNICEF Public Finance for Basic Education in Nigeria 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 07 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Return / Capability 15%
See all nine Education & Human Capability Return / Capability levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 07, rail 4: -25/100. Digital learning, scholarships and expanding classrooms show useful progress but not universal measurable applied skill, lifelong learning and family apprenticeship outcomes. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Public Finance for Basic Education in Nigeria 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria AGILE programme country results) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 07 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -15.16 + -30.41 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -81.0

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -27.5. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -27.5. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -81.0.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-27.5 Original evidence category score-27.5 Contribution to national evidence score-1.7
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 12.50 + -17.50 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -27.50

Base: -27.50 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -27.5 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -27.50 × (6.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -1.65 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 6% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 6.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -1.7 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +100.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 07 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 07, rail 4: -25/100. Digital learning, scholarships and expanding classrooms show useful progress but not universal measurable applied skill, lifelong learning and family apprenticeship outcomes. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Public Finance for Basic Education in Nigeria 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria AGILE programme country results) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 07 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Public Finance for Basic Education in Nigeria 2026 · World Bank Nigeria AGILE programme country results
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 07 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 07, rail 3: -75/100. UNICEF reports large failure rates on minimum mathematics proficiency; fees, geography, teacher shortages and safety create high learning friction. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (UNICEF Public Finance for Basic Education in Nigeria 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 07 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Public Finance for Basic Education in Nigeria 2026 · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 07 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 07, rail 2: -50/100. A significant share of primary-age children remain out of school and basic learning gaps remain; AGILE scholarship coverage is not universal actual learning access. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigeria digital learning and out-of-school children) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria AGILE programme country results) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 07 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Nigeria digital learning and out-of-school children · World Bank Nigeria AGILE programme country results
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 07 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 07, rail 1: +50/100. The country has schools and learning programmes, but 2026 UNICEF financing analysis describes serious low-learning outcomes and funding constraints. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (UNICEF Public Finance for Basic Education in Nigeria 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria digital learning and out-of-school children) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 07 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Public Finance for Basic Education in Nigeria 2026 · UNICEF Nigeria digital learning and out-of-school children
2026 full review — Nigeria — education-human-capability new source review

For Nigeria, world Bank reports new 2025 education-system financing for basic learning and underserved children, an investment commitment rather than proven universal outcome.

2026-10-11 World Bank Nigeria education financing

Published indicators

Primary-school net attendance ratio49.00 percent

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
Secondary-school net attendance ratio46.00 percent

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
Children one year below primary-entry age in organized learning59.00 percent

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
Girls attending per 100 boys in primary/secondary94.00 girls per 100 boys

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
4% weight Mobility & Reachability
-78.7↓

Money-gated · Evidence -18.8

Score breakdown

Mobility & Reachability

-78.7Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Mobility & Reachability Capacity levels and how to improve ↗
-60.6× 25%= -15.2 points
Exact point calculation

50.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 12.50 weighted points

Original evidence +50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +50.0; Money-gated reading -60.6 × 25% = -15.2 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 08, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has intercity roads, bus, air and water transportation and recorded transport-system investments; effective regular network quality varies. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 08 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Mobility & Reachability Reach levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 35%= -28.1 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

The recorded value corresponds to a Reach-ladder step. The country evidence explains its practical access conditions.

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

Linked direct Money Gate: Transportation 0.00/4 with gate-specific source link. Physical reach can exist with paid access. Free-access Reach tiers must agree with this gate’s independently sourced no-payment population assessment. 4/4 is now reserved for reliable, accessible, universally free access. Neither score is copied blindly from the other.

  1. -100No functioning ordinary transport service established
  2. -75Some transportation exists but practical access is severely limited
  3. -50Basic usable transportation infrastructure exists
  4. -25A functioning national or broadly connected public transport network exists
  5. 0More than 50% of residents are effectively served
  6. +25More than 75% effectively served OR more than 30% receive dependable free travel
  7. +50More than 75% effectively served AND more than 30% receive dependable free travel
  8. +75More than 90% effectively served, at least 75% travel free, and service is reliable
  9. +100Ordinary essential travel is universally accessible, reliable and free of payment
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -8.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 35% = -28.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 08, rail 2: -25/100. NBS measures real household-paid fares rather than free population-wide journeys, so usable transport and money-free full-family Reach are extrapolated separately. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 08 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction 25%
See all nine Mobility & Reachability Friction levels and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 08, rail 3: -75/100. NBS fare tracking and 2026 fuel inflation demonstrate substantial money and timing burdens on ordinary journeys; free national transportation is not established. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 08 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

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Return / Time 15%
See all nine Mobility & Reachability Return / Time levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 08, rail 4: -25/100. Transport enables useful life but documented spending and service variation do not show a broadly returned stock of family travel time. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 08 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, nBS reported Q3 2024 rail passenger traffic 25.05% above the same quarter of 2023, evidence of expanding usable rail capacity.

For Nigeria, nBS reported Q3 2024 rail passenger traffic 25.05% above the same quarter of 2023, evidence of expanding usable rail capacity.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -15.16 + -28.11 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -78.7

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -18.8. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -18.8. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -78.7.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-18.8 Original evidence category score-18.8 Contribution to national evidence score-0.8
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 12.50 + -8.75 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -18.75

Base: -18.75 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -18.8 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -18.75 × (4.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -0.75 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 4% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 4.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -0.8 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +75.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 08 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 08, rail 4: -25/100. Transport enables useful life but documented spending and service variation do not show a broadly returned stock of family travel time. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 08 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026 · World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 08 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 08, rail 3: -75/100. NBS fare tracking and 2026 fuel inflation demonstrate substantial money and timing burdens on ordinary journeys; free national transportation is not established. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 08 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026 · Nigeria September 2026 consumer and fuel inflation report Reuters
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 08 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 08, rail 2: -25/100. NBS measures real household-paid fares rather than free population-wide journeys, so usable transport and money-free full-family Reach are extrapolated separately. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 08 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026 · World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 08 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 08, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has intercity roads, bus, air and water transportation and recorded transport-system investments; effective regular network quality varies. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 08 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics transport fare watch 2026 · World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026
2026 full review — Nigeria — mobility-reachability domestic evidence retained

For Nigeria, nBS reported Q3 2024 rail passenger traffic 25.05% above the same quarter of 2023, evidence of expanding usable rail capacity.

2024-12-12 National Bureau of Statistics
Rail passenger use grew materially in 2024

For Nigeria, nBS reported Q3 2024 rail passenger traffic 25.05% above the same quarter of 2023, evidence of expanding usable rail capacity.

2024-12-12 National Bureau of Statistics

Published indicators

Road-traffic deaths recorded by FRSC5,421.00 deaths

Federal Road Safety Corps · 2024

Source
Road traffic crashes recorded by FRSC9,570.00 crashes

Federal Road Safety Corps · 2024

Source
People injured in recorded road crashes31,154.00 people

Federal Road Safety Corps · 2024

Source
Rail passengers in Q3743,205.00 passengers

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
8% weight Family Formation, Continuity & Child Stability
-80.3↓

Money-gated · Evidence -25.0

Score breakdown

Family Formation, Continuity & Child Stability

-80.3Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Family Formation Capacity levels, the fertility overlay and how to improve ↗
-67.2× 25%= -16.8 points
Exact point calculation

25.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 6.25 weighted points

Original evidence +25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +25.0; Money-gated reading -67.2 × 25% = -16.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 09, rail 1: +25/100. Family networks and children’s services exist, but UNICEF records two-thirds of children in multidimensional poverty; this does not prove comprehensive family support. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 09 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Family Formation Reach levels, the fertility overlay and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 35%= -28.1 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -8.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 35% = -28.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 09, rail 2: -25/100. Birth registration, child health, education and protection are distinct; Nigeria has no verified universal new-marriage land/home/care entitlement for couples. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 09 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction 25%
See all nine Family Formation Friction levels, the fertility overlay and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 09, rail 3: -75/100. Child poverty, early marriage and child safety problems show severe burdens on stable family flourishing; score is value-based and not a presumed cause of fertility. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 09 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, forty percent of children under five are registered with civil authorities, leaving legal identity and access friction for many children.

For Nigeria, forty percent of children under five are registered with civil authorities, leaving legal identity and access friction for many children.

🤔
Return / Continuity 15%
See all nine Family Formation Return / Continuity levels, the fertility overlay and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 09, rail 4: -25/100. Progress in birth registration and immunization shows potential continuity, but national child stability and supports for family generations are not universal. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 09 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -16.80 + -28.11 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -80.3

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -25.0. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -25.0. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -80.3.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-25.0 Original evidence category score-25.0 Contribution to national evidence score-2.0
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 6.25 + -8.75 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -25.00

Base: -25.00 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -25.0 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -25.00 × (8.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -2.00 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 8% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 8.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -2.0 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Family Formation — two-part calculation and marriage-law criterion

First half — the established family and fertility assessment

The original family score remains available. It combines 60% conditions for family life with 40% observed total fertility performance. Its source research is preserved.

Pre-policy score: -25.0

Second half — binary marriage-law policy criterion

This is a Trott Bailey Family policy preference, not an estimate of births lost. Recognition: −50 points. Reviewed non-recognition: 0 deduction. An unreviewed status stays pending and causes no deduction.

Country legal status: Not recognized in reviewed legal-status evidence

Deduction calculation: 50 × 0 = 0 points

Final category calculation: -25.0 − 0 = -25.0 (clamped to −100..+100, before any independent material-transfer deductions)

Same Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Act 2013 s. 1 prohibits legal marriage/civil union between persons of same sex. This is a legal-status finding, not a measured effect on fertility.

Legal-status source: Pew Research Center · 2014-01-07 · Reviewed: 2026-10-09

Fertility and family policy: research and source notes

Trott Bailey Family target and observed fertility The 5.0-children-per-woman target is an authored civilization benchmark; approximately 2.1 children per woman is the usual long-run replacement benchmark. The existing Family Formation method blends 60% lived family conditions and 40% measured fertility performance.

How policy is evaluated Assess housing, care, parental time, material security, access to family formation, and actual demographic outcomes. A government statement or law is not proof that national births increased or declined. Establish its effects with dated comparative evidence before assigning points.

How the two kinds of evidence differ The binary legal-status deduction is an authored TBF policy assessment, not a statistic of observed births. Carroll and Schumm argue that marriage-law changes can weaken procreative norms, while other empirical studies find no negative effect on different-sex family formation. This disagreement is disclosed rather than presented as scientific consensus.

Independent research OECD fertility trends (2024) · UN population projections (2024) · Peer-reviewed family-formation study (2015) · Carroll & Schumm — The Fall of Fertility (2016/2017) · Public Discourse (2015).

Trott Bailey Family thinking Courtship, Marriage & Married Life · Official Core World View · No Shrugging at Family Suffering.

Abundance Gap: +50.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 09 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 09, rail 4: -25/100. Progress in birth registration and immunization shows potential continuity, but national child stability and supports for family generations are not universal. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 09 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025 · UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 09 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 09, rail 3: -75/100. Child poverty, early marriage and child safety problems show severe burdens on stable family flourishing; score is value-based and not a presumed cause of fertility. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 09 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025 · World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 09 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 09, rail 2: -25/100. Birth registration, child health, education and protection are distinct; Nigeria has no verified universal new-marriage land/home/care entitlement for couples. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 09 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 09 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 09, rail 1: +25/100. Family networks and children’s services exist, but UNICEF records two-thirds of children in multidimensional poverty; this does not prove comprehensive family support. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 09 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025 · World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026
2026 full review — Nigeria — family-formation-stability domestic evidence retained

For Nigeria, forty percent of children under five are registered with civil authorities, leaving legal identity and access friction for many children.

The DHS Program
Family and child registration reach remains incomplete

For Nigeria, forty percent of children under five are registered with civil authorities, leaving legal identity and access friction for many children.

The DHS Program

Published indicators

Children under 5 whose births are registered40.00 percent

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
Children under 5 registered with a birth certificate28.00 percent

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
Total fertility rate4.80 births per woman

The DHS Program / Nigeria · 2024

Source
Currently married women using modern contraception15.00 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare · 2024

Source
5% weight Land Access & Spatial Freedom
-76.1↓

Money-gated · Evidence -9.0

Score breakdown

Land Access & Spatial Freedom

-76.1Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Land Capacity levels, the shared Housing/Land gate and how to improve ↗
-59.1× 25%= -14.8 points
Exact point calculation

50.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 12.50 weighted points

Original evidence +50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +56.0; Money-gated reading -59.1 × 25% = -14.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 10, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has extensive land and functioning agricultural areas, but area totals do not imply empty, suitable, socially unclaimed land for new families. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 10 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Land Reach levels, the shared Housing/Land gate and how to improve ↗
-78.7× 35%= -27.6 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

The recorded value corresponds to a Reach-ladder step. The country evidence explains its practical access conditions.

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

Linked direct Money Gate: Housing / Land 0.00/4 with gate-specific source link. Physical reach can exist with paid access. Free-access Reach tiers must agree with this gate’s independently sourced no-payment population assessment. 4/4 is now reserved for reliable, accessible, universally free access. Neither score is copied blindly from the other.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -8.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -19.0; Money-gated reading -78.7 × 35% = -27.6 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 10, rail 2: -25/100. Recognized family and communal tenure exist, yet there is no evidence of an automatic, free 50-hectare marriage-land entitlement available to all new couples. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 10 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

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Friction / Concentration 25%
See all nine Land Friction / Concentration levels, the shared Housing/Land gate and how to improve ↗
-91.9× 25%= -23.0 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -69.0; Money-gated reading -91.9 × 25% = -23.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 10, rail 3: -75/100. Land access and housing investment remain affected by money, title processing, conflict and uneven security; customary tenure must not be represented as vacant. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 10 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, the 2023-24 GHS land inventory explicitly distinguishes plots with formal property rights, family/community land, rental and use rights, showing why physical access and formal control must be audited separately.

For Nigeria, the 2023-24 GHS land inventory explicitly distinguishes plots with formal property rights, family/community land, rental and use rights, showing why physical access and formal control must be audited separately.

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Return / Productive Ground 15%
See all nine Land Return / Productive Ground levels, the shared Housing/Land gate and how to improve ↗
-72.2× 15%= -10.8 points
Exact point calculation

0.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = 0.00 weighted points

Original evidence 0.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +6.0; Money-gated reading -72.2 × 15% = -10.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 10, rail 4: +0/100. Working agricultural landscapes contribute food, but soil and forest pressure offset gains; neutral land return is inferred rather than assumed. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 10 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -14.76 + -27.56 + -22.97 + -10.82 = -76.1

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -15.0. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): +6.0. Effective evidence: -9.0. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -76.1.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-15.0 Verified Adoption bonus+3.0 Original evidence category score-12.0 Contribution to national evidence score-0.6
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 12.50 + -8.75 + -18.75 + 0.00 = -15.00

Base: -15.00 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +3.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -12.0 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -12.00 × (5.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -0.60 points

Why Adoption adds points

Nigerian national online media published the Foodway / Abundance argument for productive public and everyday land, moving the idea into national public discussion.

For Nigeria, this category carries 5% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 5.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -0.6 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +112.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 10 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 10, rail 4: +0/100. Working agricultural landscapes contribute food, but soil and forest pressure offset gains; neutral land return is inferred rather than assumed. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 10 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026 · Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 10 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 10, rail 3: -75/100. Land access and housing investment remain affected by money, title processing, conflict and uneven security; customary tenure must not be represented as vacant. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 10 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026 · World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 10 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 10, rail 2: -25/100. Recognized family and communal tenure exist, yet there is no evidence of an automatic, free 50-hectare marriage-land entitlement available to all new couples. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 10 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 10 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 10, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has extensive land and functioning agricultural areas, but area totals do not imply empty, suitable, socially unclaimed land for new families. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 10 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty · FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026
2026 full review — Nigeria — land-spatial-freedom domestic evidence retained

For Nigeria, the 2023-24 GHS land inventory explicitly distinguishes plots with formal property rights, family/community land, rental and use rights, showing why physical access and formal control must be audited separately.

National Bureau of Statistics / World Bank
Formal land rights and documentation remain separate from physical land use

For Nigeria, the 2023-24 GHS land inventory explicitly distinguishes plots with formal property rights, family/community land, rental and use rights, showing why physical access and formal control must be audited separately.

National Bureau of Statistics / World Bank

Published indicators

Households owning agricultural land47.10 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare / DHS · 2024

Source
Rural households owning agricultural land69.20 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare / DHS · 2024

Source
Urban households owning agricultural land25.60 percent

Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare / DHS · 2024

Source
Adoption: 1 archived public signal and source

Publications and documented uptake are archived for this particular category. Only independently verified, eligible signals can contribute to its bounded Adoption bonus; other records remain visible without assigning points.

The Nigerian Voice Beyond GDP: What If Nigeria Grew Wealth Where Its People Walk?

Nigerian national online media published the Foodway / Abundance argument for productive public and everyday land, moving the idea into national public discussion.

Eligible signal · authority value +3.0 before category cap

Read original publication
6% weight Peace of Mind, Happiness, Beauty & Delight
-75.4↓

Money-gated · Evidence -6.3

Score breakdown

Peace of Mind, Happiness, Beauty & Delight

-75.4Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Peace & Beauty Capacity levels, public-life access and how to improve ↗
-60.6× 25%= -15.2 points
Exact point calculation

50.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 12.50 weighted points

Original evidence +50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +50.0; Money-gated reading -60.6 × 25% = -15.2 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 11, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has diverse public culture, recreation and scenic landscapes; measured 2026 life evaluation 4.788/10 is not a measure of the number of free parks. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Happiness Report 2026 Nigeria life evaluations) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 11 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

Nigeria has exceptional cultural, coastal, savannah and forest landscapes, while security, displacement and economic stress materially reduce the ability of many households to enjoy that capacity.

Nigeria has exceptional cultural, coastal, savannah and forest landscapes, while security, displacement and economic stress materially reduce the ability of many households to enjoy that capacity.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Peace & Beauty Reach levels, public-life access and how to improve ↗
-73.8× 35%= -25.8 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

0.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = 0.00 weighted points

Original evidence 0.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation 0.0; Money-gated reading -73.8 × 35% = -25.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 11, rail 2: +0/100. The World Happiness Report puts Nigeria 106th at 4.788 in 2026; this cannot be converted into a national percentage with safe, nearby free public delight. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Happiness Report 2026 Nigeria life evaluations) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 11 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction 25%
See all nine Peace & Beauty Friction levels, public-life access and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 11, rail 3: -75/100. WJP order/security results and child safety problems support serious avoidable public-life friction; safety and free access are separate conditions. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 11 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

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Return / Delight 15%
See all nine Peace & Beauty Return / Delight levels, public-life access and how to improve ↗
-73.8× 15%= -11.1 points
Exact point calculation

0.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = 0.00 weighted points

Original evidence 0.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation 0.0; Money-gated reading -73.8 × 15% = -11.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 11, rail 4: +0/100. Community social bonds and public life exist, but the subjective happiness measure does not certify the physical or social benefit of universally maintained Balushu public spaces. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Happiness Report 2026 Nigeria life evaluations) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria children and safe public-life outcomes 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 11 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -15.16 + -25.81 + -23.36 + -11.06 = -75.4

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -6.3. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -6.3. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -75.4.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-6.3 Original evidence category score-6.3 Contribution to national evidence score-0.4
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 12.50 + 0.00 + -18.75 + 0.00 = -6.25

Base: -6.25 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -6.3 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -6.25 × (6.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -0.38 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 6% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 6.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -0.4 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +50.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 11 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 11, rail 4: +0/100. Community social bonds and public life exist, but the subjective happiness measure does not certify the physical or social benefit of universally maintained Balushu public spaces. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Happiness Report 2026 Nigeria life evaluations) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigeria children and safe public-life outcomes 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 11 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Happiness Report 2026 Nigeria life evaluations · UNICEF Nigeria children and safe public-life outcomes 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 11 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 11, rail 3: -75/100. WJP order/security results and child safety problems support serious avoidable public-life friction; safety and free access are separate conditions. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 11 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 11 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 11, rail 2: +0/100. The World Happiness Report puts Nigeria 106th at 4.788 in 2026; this cannot be converted into a national percentage with safe, nearby free public delight. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Happiness Report 2026 Nigeria life evaluations) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 11 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Happiness Report 2026 Nigeria life evaluations · UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2023–25 household survey
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 11 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 11, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has diverse public culture, recreation and scenic landscapes; measured 2026 life evaluation 4.788/10 is not a measure of the number of free parks. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Happiness Report 2026 Nigeria life evaluations) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 11 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Happiness Report 2026 Nigeria life evaluations · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
2026 full review — Nigeria — peace-beauty-delight domestic evidence retained

Nigeria has exceptional cultural, coastal, savannah and forest landscapes, while security, displacement and economic stress materially reduce the ability of many households to enjoy that capacity.

World Happiness Report
High cultural and landscape capacity is not equivalent to lived peace

Nigeria has exceptional cultural, coastal, savannah and forest landscapes, while security, displacement and economic stress materially reduce the ability of many households to enjoy that capacity.

World Happiness Report

Published indicators

World Happiness Report life evaluation4.79 0-10 score

World Happiness Report · 2026

Source
World Happiness Report rank106.00 rank

World Happiness Report · 2026

Source
Internally displaced people in FAO emergency context500,000.00 people

FAO · 2026

Source
6% weight Living Ground, Biodiversity & Resilience
-77.9↓

Money-gated · Evidence -15.8

Score breakdown

Living Ground, Biodiversity & Resilience

-77.9Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Living Ground Capacity levels, ecological evidence and how to improve ↗
-59.8× 25%= -15.0 points
Exact point calculation

50.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 12.50 weighted points

Original evidence +50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +53.0; Money-gated reading -59.8 × 25% = -15.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 12, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria retains significant forests and productive ecosystems, but Global Forest Watch records about 240,000 hectares of natural forest loss in 2025. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria forest area 18.9% in 2024) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 12 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Reach / Ecological Function 35%
See all nine Living Ground Reach / Ecological Function levels, ecological evidence and how to improve ↗
-79.5× 35%= -27.8 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -8.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -22.0; Money-gated reading -79.5 × 35% = -27.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 12, rail 2: -25/100. The 2024 World Bank forest-area indicator (~18.9%) and GFW losses cannot be used as an invented functioning-land percentage across forests, grasslands and coastal regions. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 12 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction / Loss 25%
See all nine Living Ground Friction / Loss levels, ecological evidence and how to improve ↗
-92.7× 25%= -23.2 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -72.0; Money-gated reading -92.7 × 25% = -23.2 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 12, rail 3: -75/100. Agricultural expansion and ecological pressure cause meaningful habitat and soil losses, though non-forest natural ecosystems must be assessed fairly. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 12 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Return / Regeneration 15%
See all nine Living Ground Return / Regeneration levels, ecological evidence and how to improve ↗
-79.5× 15%= -11.9 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -22.0; Money-gated reading -79.5 × 15% = -11.9 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 12, rail 4: -25/100. Conservation and recovery initiatives exist; the evidence does not demonstrate a national sustained net improvement in soils, biodiversity and climate resilience. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 12 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

Nigeria reports expanded restoration, carbon-market and circular-economy measures, but commitments are treated as return capacity rather than proof that ecological loss has been reversed.

Nigeria reports expanded restoration, carbon-market and circular-economy measures, but commitments are treated as return capacity rather than proof that ecological loss has been reversed.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -14.96 + -27.83 + -23.16 + -11.93 = -77.9

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -18.8. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): +3.0. Effective evidence: -15.8. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -77.9.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-18.8 Verified Adoption bonus+1.5 Original evidence category score-17.3 Contribution to national evidence score-1.0
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 12.50 + -8.75 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -18.75

Base: -18.75 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +1.50 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -17.3 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -17.25 × (6.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -1.04 points

Why Adoption adds points

Nigerian agricultural publication carried Foodway, Life-upon-Life field observation and Friction Economy thinking into a Nigerian agricultural context.

For Nigeria, this category carries 6% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 6.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -1.0 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +117.3

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 12 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 12, rail 4: -25/100. Conservation and recovery initiatives exist; the evidence does not demonstrate a national sustained net improvement in soils, biodiversity and climate resilience. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 12 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss · World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 12 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 12, rail 3: -75/100. Agricultural expansion and ecological pressure cause meaningful habitat and soil losses, though non-forest natural ecosystems must be assessed fairly. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 12 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss · FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 12 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 12, rail 2: -25/100. The 2024 World Bank forest-area indicator (~18.9%) and GFW losses cannot be used as an invented functioning-land percentage across forests, grasslands and coastal regions. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 12 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss · FAO Nigeria food-security emergency outlook 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 12 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 12, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria retains significant forests and productive ecosystems, but Global Forest Watch records about 240,000 hectares of natural forest loss in 2025. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria forest area 18.9% in 2024) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 12 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss · World Bank Nigeria forest area 18.9% in 2024
2026 full review — Nigeria — living-ground-resilience domestic evidence retained

Nigeria reports expanded restoration, carbon-market and circular-economy measures, but commitments are treated as return capacity rather than proof that ecological loss has been reversed.

2025-12-11 Federal Ministry of Environment
Circular and restoration commitments are expanding

Nigeria reports expanded restoration, carbon-market and circular-economy measures, but commitments are treated as return capacity rather than proof that ecological loss has been reversed.

2025-12-11 Federal Ministry of Environment

Published indicators

Forest area23.20 percent of land area

World Bank · 2023

Source
Annual freshwater withdrawals6.00 percent of internal resources

World Bank · 2022

Source
Territorial CO2 emissions per capita0.60 tonnes CO2 per capita

World Bank · 2024

Source
Adoption: 1 archived public signal and source

Publications and documented uptake are archived for this particular category. Only independently verified, eligible signals can contribute to its bounded Adoption bonus; other records remain visible without assigning points.

FarmingFarmersFarms Beyond yield: A Bahia foodway experiment raises wider question about agricultural friction

Nigerian agricultural publication carried Foodway, Life-upon-Life field observation and Friction Economy thinking into a Nigerian agricultural context.

Eligible signal · authority value +1.5 before category cap

Read original publication
5% weight Justice, Safety & Institutional Friction
-80.3↓

Money-gated · Evidence -25.0

Score breakdown

Justice, Safety & Institutional Friction

-80.3Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Justice & Safety Capacity levels, evidence requirements and how to improve ↗
-67.2× 25%= -16.8 points
Exact point calculation

25.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 6.25 weighted points

Original evidence +25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +25.0; Money-gated reading -67.2 × 25% = -16.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 13, rail 1: +25/100. Nigeria has courts and functioning legal and identity institutions, but WJP 2025 scores 0.41 and ranks 120/143; order/security is 0.36. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNHCR 2025 displacement and conflict in Nigeria) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 13 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

UNICEF describes conflict-driven displacement, insecurity and humanitarian needs in several Nigerian states, which obstruct daily safety and continuity for families.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Justice & Safety Reach levels, evidence requirements and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 35%= -28.1 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -8.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 35% = -28.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 13, rail 2: -25/100. Legal institutions alone do not prove that all residents can access affordable, timely independent remedies and child protection; actual reach extrapolated. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 13 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction 25%
See all nine Justice & Safety Friction levels, evidence requirements and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 13, rail 3: -75/100. WJP Nigeria 2025 finds corruption and security weaknesses; conflict and displacement obstruct safe everyday public life and fair hearings. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNHCR 2025 displacement and conflict in Nigeria) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 13 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Return / Reliability 15%
See all nine Justice & Safety Return / Reliability levels, evidence requirements and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 13, rail 4: -25/100. Some redress and public accountability operate, but uneven effective enforcement and weak corruption controls limit reliable return. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 13 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -16.80 + -28.11 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -80.3

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -25.0. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -25.0. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -80.3.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-25.0 Original evidence category score-25.0 Contribution to national evidence score-1.3
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 6.25 + -8.75 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -25.00

Base: -25.00 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -25.0 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -25.00 × (5.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -1.25 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 5% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 5.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -1.3 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +50.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 13 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 13, rail 4: -25/100. Some redress and public accountability operate, but uneven effective enforcement and weak corruption controls limit reliable return. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 13 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index · World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 13 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 13, rail 3: -75/100. WJP Nigeria 2025 finds corruption and security weaknesses; conflict and displacement obstruct safe everyday public life and fair hearings. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNHCR 2025 displacement and conflict in Nigeria) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 13 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index · UNHCR 2025 displacement and conflict in Nigeria
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 13 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 13, rail 2: -25/100. Legal institutions alone do not prove that all residents can access affordable, timely independent remedies and child protection; actual reach extrapolated. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 13 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 13 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 13, rail 1: +25/100. Nigeria has courts and functioning legal and identity institutions, but WJP 2025 scores 0.41 and ranks 120/143; order/security is 0.36. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNHCR 2025 displacement and conflict in Nigeria) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 13 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Justice Project Nigeria 2025 Rule of Law Index · UNHCR 2025 displacement and conflict in Nigeria
2026 full review — Nigeria — justice-safety-friction new source review

UNICEF describes conflict-driven displacement, insecurity and humanitarian needs in several Nigerian states, which obstruct daily safety and continuity for families.

2026-10-11 UNICEF Nigeria 2026 Appeal

Published indicators

WJP Rule of Law global rank120.00 rank of 143

World Justice Project · 2025

Source
WJP Rule of Law score0.40 0-1 score

World Justice Project · 2025

Source
Pre-trial/remand share of prison population65.20 percent

World Prison Brief · 2026

Source
Prison occupancy level125.60 percent of official capacity

World Prison Brief · 2025

Source
4% weight Durability, Repair & Material Return
-80.3↓

Money-gated · Evidence -25.0

Score breakdown

Durability, Repair & Material Return

-80.3Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Capacity 25%
See all nine Durability & Repair Capacity scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-67.2× 25%= -16.8 points
Exact point calculation

25.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 6.25 weighted points

Original evidence +25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +25.0; Money-gated reading -67.2 × 25% = -16.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Capacity rate, when evidenced = usable functioning capacity ÷ capacity needed × 100. A derived score requires separate documented judgement; do not assume the rate itself equals the score.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 14, rail 1: +25/100. Repair and informal reuse markets function in Nigeria; national repairable design, safe e-waste handling and formal returns remain underdocumented. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 14 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Reach 35%
See all nine Durability & Repair Reach scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 35%= -28.1 points
Reach · 25-point ladder & linked Money Gate

Domestic Reach has eight 25-point intervals and nine anchors: −100, −75, −50, −25, 0, +25, +50, +75, +100. Existing readings retain their recorded scoring basis.

The transportation thresholds establish the 25-point reference scale, with category-specific evidence determining the Reach reading.

Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (35.00 ÷ 100) = -8.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 35% = -28.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Reach rate, when evidenced = people effectively served ÷ eligible people × 100. Check the same population, period and location.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 14, rail 2: -25/100. No complete household coverage figure for convenient, money-free garment/device/building repair is established; an informal repair market is not the same as universal accessibility. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 14 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

🤔
Friction / Waste 25%
See all nine Durability & Repair Friction / Waste scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-93.4× 25%= -23.4 points
Exact point calculation

-75.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = -18.75 weighted points

Original evidence -75.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -75.0; Money-gated reading -93.4 × 25% = -23.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 14, rail 3: -75/100. Waste burdens and limited traceability restrict safe material recovery. Imported plastic scrap alone does not establish harmful dumping or legal violations. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap imports HS3915) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 14 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, the 2023/24 GHS reports 45.6% of households disposing refuse in bushes or streets, a major return-system gap despite policy and EPR infrastructure.

🤔
Return / Circularity 15%
See all nine Durability & Repair Return / Circularity scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-80.3× 15%= -12.0 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (15.00 ÷ 100) = -3.75 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 15% = -12.0 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 14, rail 4: -25/100. Reuse and plastic recovery have economic roles, but safe processing and durable useful-life extensions nationally cannot be inferred from waste trade quantities. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap exports HS3915) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 14 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, nESREA states that its EPR framework is implemented for used tyres, plastics, used electrical/electronic equipment and used lead-acid batteries, assigning producers responsibility for recovery, recycling and safe disposal.

For Nigeria, nESREA states that its EPR framework is implemented for used tyres, plastics, used electrical/electronic equipment and used lead-acid batteries, assigning producers responsibility for recovery, recycling and safe disposal.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -16.80 + -28.11 + -23.36 + -12.04 = -80.3

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: -25.0. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: -25.0. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -80.3.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal-25.0 Original evidence category score-25.0 Contribution to national evidence score-1.0
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 6.25 + -8.75 + -18.75 + -3.75 = -25.00

Base: -25.00 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published -25.0 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: -25.00 × (4.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = -1.00 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 4% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 4.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes -1.0 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

Abundance Gap: +50.0

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 14 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 14, rail 4: -25/100. Reuse and plastic recovery have economic roles, but safe processing and durable useful-life extensions nationally cannot be inferred from waste trade quantities. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap exports HS3915) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 14 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap exports HS3915 · UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 14 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 14, rail 3: -75/100. Waste burdens and limited traceability restrict safe material recovery. Imported plastic scrap alone does not establish harmful dumping or legal violations. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap imports HS3915) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 14 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -75/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook · World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap imports HS3915
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 14 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 14, rail 2: -25/100. No complete household coverage figure for convenient, money-free garment/device/building repair is established; an informal repair market is not the same as universal accessibility. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 14 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook · World Bank Nigeria 2026 country data and poverty
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 14 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 14, rail 1: +25/100. Repair and informal reuse markets function in Nigeria; national repairable design, safe e-waste handling and formal returns remain underdocumented. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 14 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNEP 2024 Global Waste Management Outlook · World Bank state spending Nigeria October 2026
Extended Producer Responsibility is an active material-return mechanism

For Nigeria, nESREA states that its EPR framework is implemented for used tyres, plastics, used electrical/electronic equipment and used lead-acid batteries, assigning producers responsibility for recovery, recycling and safe disposal.

2025-12-03 NESREA
2026 full review — Nigeria — durability-material-return domestic evidence retained

For Nigeria, nESREA states that its EPR framework is implemented for used tyres, plastics, used electrical/electronic equipment and used lead-acid batteries, assigning producers responsibility for recovery, recycling and safe disposal.

NESREA
Material leakage remains large at household level

For Nigeria, the 2023/24 GHS reports 45.6% of households disposing refuse in bushes or streets, a major return-system gap despite policy and EPR infrastructure.

National Bureau of Statistics

Published indicators

E-waste collection centres reported established30.00 centres

Federal Ministry of Environment · 2025

Source
Households disposing refuse in bushes or streets45.60 percent

National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024

Source
6% weight International Accessibility, Migration & Human Welcome
-68.8↓

Money-gated · Evidence +18.8

International score breakdown

International Accessibility, Migration & Human Welcome

-68.8Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Entry Accessibility 25%
See all nine International Welcome Entry Accessibility scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-60.6× 25%= -15.2 points
Exact point calculation

50.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 12.50 weighted points

Original evidence +50.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +50.0; Money-gated reading -60.6 × 25% = -15.2 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 15, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has an operational electronic visa pathway covering tourism, academic exchange, business and other visits; paid eligibility and actual admission remain conditional. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria Immigration Service e-Visa official 2025 rules) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria Immigration Service eligible eVisa types and entry) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 15 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, eCOWAS citizens have a formal regional free-movement framework, but border-level implementation remains an active issue.

Nigeria participates in the ECOWAS Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, Right of Residence and Establishment; current ECOWAS work continues to assess implementation at the Nigeria-Benin border.

🤔
Migrant Practical Life 30%
See all nine International Welcome Migrant Practical Life scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-73.8× 30%= -22.1 points
Exact point calculation

0.00 × (30.00 ÷ 100) = 0.00 weighted points

Original evidence 0.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation 0.0; Money-gated reading -73.8 × 30% = -22.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 15, rail 2: +0/100. ECOWAS mobility and refugee access support practical migrant life; nationally integrated housing, work, healthcare, school and long-term stable rights remain uneven. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria Immigration Service ECOWAS residence documentation) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNHCR Nigeria refuge/asylum profile 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 15 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

Nigeria's electronic visa project speeds some visitor applications, but does not establish no-fee travel or general residence permission.

For Nigeria, uNHCR reports roughly 140,000 refugees and asylum-seekers from more than 45 countries and states that refugees have access to employment, mobility and essential services under national arrangements.

🤔
Refugee / Neighbour Welcome 25%
See all nine International Welcome Refugee / Neighbour Welcome scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-67.2× 25%= -16.8 points
Exact point calculation

25.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 6.25 weighted points

Original evidence +25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +25.0; Money-gated reading -67.2 × 25% = -16.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 15, rail 3: +25/100. UNHCR reports Nigeria hosts roughly 140,000 refugees/asylum-seekers (mainly Cameroon) with government asylum registration; this merits a positive welcome score despite protection gaps. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (UNHCR Nigeria refuge/asylum profile 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 15 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, uNHCR records around 140,000 refugees and asylum seekers from more than 45 countries and notes legal access to work, movement and services.

For Nigeria, the electronic visa system is designed for end-to-end processing and shorter timelines. Visitor facilitation is recorded separately from residence, family continuity and refugee protection.

🤔
Flexibility / Continuity 20%
See all nine International Welcome Flexibility / Continuity scoring levels and how to improve ↗
-73.8× 20%= -14.7 points
Exact point calculation

0.00 × (20.00 ÷ 100) = 0.00 weighted points

Original evidence 0.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation 0.0; Money-gated reading -73.8 × 20% = -14.7 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 15, rail 4: +0/100. Residence documents and child registration exist, but full birthright nationality, durable family reunification and child statelessness protection cannot be proven universal. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2025 birth-registration module) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria Immigration Service ECOWAS residence documentation) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 15 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, eCOWAS mobility and refugee protection provide real regional routes, while legal status, documentation and actual service reach still vary.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -15.16 + -22.13 + -16.80 + -14.74 = -68.8

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: +18.8. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: +18.8. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -68.8.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal+18.8 Original evidence category score+18.8 Contribution to national evidence score+1.1
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 12.50 + 0.00 + 6.25 + 0.00 = 18.75

Base: 18.75 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published +18.8 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: 18.75 × (6.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = 1.13 points

For Nigeria, this category carries 6% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 6.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes +1.1 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 15 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 15, rail 4: +0/100. Residence documents and child registration exist, but full birthright nationality, durable family reunification and child statelessness protection cannot be proven universal. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2025 birth-registration module) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria Immigration Service ECOWAS residence documentation) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 15 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNICEF/NBS MICS Plus 2025 birth-registration module · Nigeria Immigration Service ECOWAS residence documentation
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 15 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 15, rail 3: +25/100. UNHCR reports Nigeria hosts roughly 140,000 refugees/asylum-seekers (mainly Cameroon) with government asylum registration; this merits a positive welcome score despite protection gaps. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (UNHCR Nigeria refuge/asylum profile 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 15 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 UNHCR Nigeria refuge/asylum profile 2025 · UNICEF Nigerian Child 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 15 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 15, rail 2: +0/100. ECOWAS mobility and refugee access support practical migrant life; nationally integrated housing, work, healthcare, school and long-term stable rights remain uneven. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria Immigration Service ECOWAS residence documentation) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNHCR Nigeria refuge/asylum profile 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 15 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria Immigration Service ECOWAS residence documentation · UNHCR Nigeria refuge/asylum profile 2025
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 15 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 15, rail 1: +50/100. Nigeria has an operational electronic visa pathway covering tourism, academic exchange, business and other visits; paid eligibility and actual admission remain conditional. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria Immigration Service e-Visa official 2025 rules) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Nigeria Immigration Service eligible eVisa types and entry) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 15 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +50/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria Immigration Service e-Visa official 2025 rules · Nigeria Immigration Service eligible eVisa types and entry
2026 full review — Nigeria — Flexibility / Continuity (international-access-human-welcome)

For Nigeria, eCOWAS mobility and refugee protection provide real regional routes, while legal status, documentation and actual service reach still vary.

2026-10-11 UNHCR Nigeria country operations
2026 full review — Nigeria — Refugee / Neighbour Welcome (international-access-human-welcome)

For Nigeria, uNHCR records around 140,000 refugees and asylum seekers from more than 45 countries and notes legal access to work, movement and services.

2026-10-11 UNHCR Nigeria country operations
2026 full review — Nigeria — Migrant Practical Life (international-access-human-welcome)

Nigeria's electronic visa project speeds some visitor applications, but does not establish no-fee travel or general residence permission.

2026-10-11 Nigeria Federal Ministry of Interior eVisa framework
2026 full review — Nigeria — Entry Accessibility (international-access-human-welcome)

For Nigeria, eCOWAS citizens have a formal regional free-movement framework, but border-level implementation remains an active issue.

2026-10-11 ECOWAS Nigeria-Benin free movement review
Digital visa reform reduces administrative friction but does not establish settlement openness

For Nigeria, the electronic visa system is designed for end-to-end processing and shorter timelines. Visitor facilitation is recorded separately from residence, family continuity and refugee protection.

2026-04-01 Nigeria Ministry of Interior
ECOWAS free-movement framework provides regional mobility rights

Nigeria participates in the ECOWAS Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, Right of Residence and Establishment; current ECOWAS work continues to assess implementation at the Nigeria-Benin border.

2025-05-09 ECOWAS
Nigeria hosts a substantial refugee and asylum population

For Nigeria, uNHCR reports roughly 140,000 refugees and asylum-seekers from more than 45 countries and states that refugees have access to employment, mobility and essential services under national arrangements.

UNHCR

Published indicators

Refugees and asylum-seekers hosted140,000.00 people

UNHCR · 2025

Source
Published e-visa response target48.00 hours maximum target

Nigeria Ministry of Interior · 2025

Source
6% weight External Footprint & Non-Extractive Global Conduct
-73.4↓

Money-gated · Evidence +1.3

International score breakdown

External Footprint & Non-Extractive Global Conduct

-73.4Four beleshkies · Money-gated
Useful Contribution Abroad 25%
Explore External Footprint scoring levels, including the v3.1 weight and historic-score differences ↗
-67.2× 25%= -16.8 points
Exact point calculation

25.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 6.25 weighted points

Original evidence +25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation +25.0; Money-gated reading -67.2 × 25% = -16.8 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 16, rail 1: +25/100. Nigeria participates in regional ECOWAS diplomacy/security, and regional refugee arrangements; an announced or conducted operation is not independently measured recipient improvement. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria State House ECOWAS security intervention December 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNHCR Nigeria refuge/asylum profile 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 16 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

Nigeria has served in UN peacekeeping missions for decades, including major roles in Liberia and other African operations.

🤔
Mutual Benefit Retained 25%
Explore External Footprint scoring levels, including the v3.1 weight and historic-score differences ↗
-73.8× 25%= -18.4 points
Exact point calculation

0.00 × (25.00 ÷ 100) = 0.00 weighted points

Original evidence 0.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation 0.0; Money-gated reading -73.8 × 25% = -18.4 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 16, rail 2: +0/100. Cooperation may assist neighbouring societies, but durable locally retained skills and recipient control have not been measured enough for a positive mutuality score. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria State House ECOWAS security intervention December 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 16 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

ECOWAS engagement across the Nigeria-Benin border serves mutual regional mobility but implementation remains incomplete.

🤔
Other Harm & Repair 20%
Explore External Footprint scoring levels, including the v3.1 weight and historic-score differences ↗
-80.3× 20%= -16.1 points
Exact point calculation

-25.00 × (20.00 ÷ 100) = -5.00 weighted points

Original evidence -25.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation -25.0; Money-gated reading -80.3 × 20% = -16.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 16, rail 3: -25/100. Cross-border security intervention and environmental externalities require harm-and-remedy scrutiny; a −25 proxy-led assessment is not a factual finding that every action was unlawful. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria State House ECOWAS security intervention December 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 16 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, world Bank country data document heavy dependence on petroleum exports and social vulnerability; precise downstream environmental accountability for exported fuels remains a research gap.

Nigeria is a major hydrocarbon producer/exporter. Attribution of downstream foreign emissions, labour effects and benefits requires a fuller ledger than the current pack supports, so this category remains unscored.

For Nigeria, current public datasets provide 133 Mt consumption-based CO2 for 2023 and 136 Mt territorial CO2 for 2024. They are retained as separate measurements rather than used to invent a trade-adjusted 2024 balance.

🤔
Material Transfers (export/import roles) 30%
Explore External Footprint scoring levels, including the v3.1 weight and historic-score differences ↗
-73.8× 30%= -22.1 points
Exact point calculation

0.00 × (30.00 ÷ 100) = 0.00 weighted points

Original evidence 0.0; after proportional category-adjustment allocation 0.0; Money-gated reading -73.8 × 30% = -22.1 points. Original evidence and the adjustment stay separately identifiable.

Use the cited country-specific record to explain why this rail earned its points.

Why this score

Nigeria, methodology 16, rail 4: +0/100. WITS HS3915 records ~8,319 tonnes plastic scrap exported and ~5,772 tonnes imported in 2024, but alone cannot establish either unlawful dumping or beneficial full recycling; neutral material score pending outcome proof. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap exports HS3915) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap imports HS3915) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 16 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

For Nigeria, uN Peacekeeping reports missions and personnel roles; lasting civilian outcomes, abuses and repair require mission-specific investigation.

🤔
Money-gated beleshky contributions -16.80 + -18.44 + -16.06 + -22.12 = -73.4

The Money Gate is already included in the four readings. No second ceiling is deducted from this category. Displayed contributions are reconciled to two decimal places.

Adjustment and Money Gate arithmetic

Original weighted evidence: +1.3. Category adjustments (research, Adoption, family and/or transfer): 0.0. Effective evidence: +1.3. Money Gate ceiling: -47.5. Four Money-gated beleshky contributions total: -73.4.

The adjustment is distributed within beleshky score limits. The original 64 evidence readings are preserved for research review.

Weighted rail subtotal+1.3 Original evidence category score+1.3 Contribution to national evidence score+0.1
Show the full category score calculation

Weighted rails: 6.25 + 0.00 + -5.00 + 0.00 = 1.25

Base: 1.25 · reviewed adjustment: 0.00 · Adoption: +0.00 · authored marriage-law deduction: −0.00 · verified transfer deduction: −0.00 = published +1.3 (clamped to −100..+100)

Contribution to national evidence: 1.25 × (6.00 × 100.00%) ÷ 100.00 = 0.08 points

Material transfers: scored in International Footprint

Exporter responsibility: 0.00/100 (15% of footprint); importer responsibility: 0.00/100 (15% of footprint). Material movement is a real workload; these are TBF authored judgments, not certified illegal dumping estimates. Each role is included ONCE in the Footprint 3.1 published score.

Exported waste / garbageRole: 0.00/100 · scored

Nigeria — 2024 export of plastic waste and scrap. Nigeria exported 8,318,520 kg and imported 5,772,130 kg of plastic scrap in 2024. Exports included shipments to the US and UK; the material needs separate chain-of-custody checks in both roles. The customs heading identifies traded material; neither permitted recycling nor proven harmful dumping follows from the heading. Source-level trade measurement is verified, downstream disposition is not.

2024 trade data · checked 2026-10-11 · World Bank WITS / UN Comtrade · View source ↗

World Bank WITS / UN Comtrade, 2024 reporter imports/exports, HS 3915; not a downstream inspection

Exported low-utility goods / disguised dumpingRole: 0.00/100 · scored

Nigeria — 2024 export of worn clothing and other worn articles. Nigeria imported 724,859 kg of worn clothing in 2024; utility and post-import disposal are not established by value or weight. A worn garment can be useful or trash; this audit has no shipment sorting/usable-share or recipient-facility record proving either outcome.

2024 trade data · checked 2026-10-11 · World Bank WITS / UN Comtrade · View source ↗

World Bank WITS / UN Comtrade, 2024 reporter imports/exports, HS 630900; not a downstream inspection

Accepted imported garbageRole: 0.00/100 · scored

Nigeria — 2024 import of plastic waste and scrap. Nigeria exported 8,318,520 kg and imported 5,772,130 kg of plastic scrap in 2024. Exports included shipments to the US and UK; the material needs separate chain-of-custody checks in both roles. The customs heading identifies traded material; neither permitted recycling nor proven harmful dumping follows from the heading. Source-level trade measurement is verified, downstream disposition is not.

2024 trade data · checked 2026-10-11 · World Bank WITS / UN Comtrade · View source ↗

World Bank WITS / UN Comtrade, 2024 reporter imports/exports, HS 3915; not a downstream inspection

Accepted low-utility dumpingRole: 0.00/100 · scored

Nigeria — 2024 import of worn clothing and other worn articles. Nigeria imported 724,859 kg of worn clothing in 2024; utility and post-import disposal are not established by value or weight. A worn garment can be useful or trash; this audit has no shipment sorting/usable-share or recipient-facility record proving either outcome.

2024 trade data · checked 2026-10-11 · World Bank WITS / UN Comtrade · View source ↗

World Bank WITS / UN Comtrade, 2024 reporter imports/exports, HS 630900; not a downstream inspection

The material-transfer burden already affects the published score. Facility-specific downstream harm remains a separate research claim. No second penalty is added for the same trade.

For Nigeria, this category carries 6% of the scorecard. With 100% research coverage in this category, its effective researched weight is 6.00%. After normalization across Nigeria’s researched categories, this category contributes +0.1 points to the national Evidence-before-Gate reading.

What the evidence found

Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 16 | Rail 4

Nigeria, methodology 16, rail 4: +0/100. WITS HS3915 records ~8,319 tonnes plastic scrap exported and ~5,772 tonnes imported in 2024, but alone cannot establish either unlawful dumping or beneficial full recycling; neutral material score pending outcome proof. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap exports HS3915) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap imports HS3915) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 16 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap exports HS3915 · World Bank WITS Nigeria 2024 plastic scrap imports HS3915
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 16 | Rail 3

Nigeria, methodology 16, rail 3: -25/100. Cross-border security intervention and environmental externalities require harm-and-remedy scrutiny; a −25 proxy-led assessment is not a factual finding that every action was unlawful. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria State House ECOWAS security intervention December 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 16 nine-level rail ladder and assigns -25/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria State House ECOWAS security intervention December 2025 · Global Forest Watch Nigeria 2025 tree cover and forest loss
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 16 | Rail 2

Nigeria, methodology 16, rail 2: +0/100. Cooperation may assist neighbouring societies, but durable locally retained skills and recipient control have not been measured enough for a positive mutuality score. ASSESSMENT BASIS: EXTRAPOLATED. Source A (Nigeria State House ECOWAS security intervention December 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 16 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +0/100 as a transparent extrapolated judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria State House ECOWAS security intervention December 2025 · World Bank Nigeria Development Update, October 2026
Nigeria | 2026-10-18 | Methodology 16 | Rail 1

Nigeria, methodology 16, rail 1: +25/100. Nigeria participates in regional ECOWAS diplomacy/security, and regional refugee arrangements; an announced or conducted operation is not independently measured recipient improvement. ASSESSMENT BASIS: PROXY-SUPPORTED. Source A (Nigeria State House ECOWAS security intervention December 2025) supports the stated Nigerian condition; Source B (UNHCR Nigeria refuge/asylum profile 2025) supplies corroboration or a limiting comparison. TBF evaluates both against the published Category 16 nine-level rail ladder and assigns +25/100 as a transparent proxy-supported judgment. The assignment is not a measured nationwide share or an official source score. Where direct universal/free-service denominators are absent, no national figure is invented. Appeals may present better evidence and obtain a dated recalculation.

2026-10-18 Nigeria State House ECOWAS security intervention December 2025 · UNHCR Nigeria refuge/asylum profile 2025
2026 full review — Nigeria — Accountability / Repair (external-footprint-non-extractive)

For Nigeria, uN Peacekeeping reports missions and personnel roles; lasting civilian outcomes, abuses and repair require mission-specific investigation.

2026-10-11 UN Peacekeeping Nigeria contribution record
2026 full review — Nigeria — Documented Harm / Extraction (external-footprint-non-extractive)

For Nigeria, world Bank country data document heavy dependence on petroleum exports and social vulnerability; precise downstream environmental accountability for exported fuels remains a research gap.

2026-10-11 World Bank Nigeria 2026 country overview
2026 full review — Nigeria — Mutuality / Local Benefit (external-footprint-non-extractive)

ECOWAS engagement across the Nigeria-Benin border serves mutual regional mobility but implementation remains incomplete.

2026-10-11 ECOWAS cross-border mobility programme
2026 full review — Nigeria — Positive Contribution (external-footprint-non-extractive)

Nigeria has served in UN peacekeeping missions for decades, including major roles in Liberia and other African operations.

2026-10-11 UN Peacekeeping country profile Nigeria
Oil and gas exports create cross-border benefit and harm questions beyond domestic emissions

Nigeria is a major hydrocarbon producer/exporter. Attribution of downstream foreign emissions, labour effects and benefits requires a fuller ledger than the current pack supports, so this category remains unscored.

World Bank
Consumption and territorial carbon ledgers require year-matched comparison

For Nigeria, current public datasets provide 133 Mt consumption-based CO2 for 2023 and 136 Mt territorial CO2 for 2024. They are retained as separate measurements rather than used to invent a trade-adjusted 2024 balance.

Our World in Data / Global Carbon Budget

Published indicators

Territorial CO2 emissions136.00 million tonnes CO2

Our World in Data / Global Carbon Budget · 2024

Source
Territorial CO2 emissions per capita0.58 tonnes CO2/person

Our World in Data / Global Carbon Budget · 2024

Source
Consumption-based CO2 emissions133.00 million tonnes CO2

Our World in Data / Global Carbon Budget · 2023

Source

Trott Bailey Family Civilization Target

The end state: life beyond monetary gatekeeping

Trott Bailey Family Civilization treats money as an exchange tool rather than a prerequisite for access to life. The long-run abundance target is that food, water, shelter, care, education, mobility, land access and ordinary public life remain reachable even when a person cannot pay.

This target is an authored civilization standard. The diagnostic evidence score can use all sixteen weighted categories: fourteen domestic plus International Welcome (6%) and External Footprint (6%), when each international category has four verified rail scores and dated source evidence. Unreviewed international rails remain pending, not zero. The five-part Money Gate remains a separate domestic threshold asking whether food, housing/land, healthcare, transportation and water/energy are genuinely reachable without payment before any civilization can cross zero.