Guatemala

Trott Bailey Family Abundance · Country Profile

Guatemala

Tracking baselineEvidence through 4 Oct 2026
TBF Rank #172 of 243 countries
GuatemalaTrending down: previously #168, now #172.Recent recorded movements
  1. #168 → #1726 Oct 2026 · 19:42 GMT-0500
  2. #165 → #1686 Oct 2026 · 18:46 GMT-0500
TBF Abundance Score -67.4 Evidence before Abundance Gate +15.0 National Abundance Gate Money-gated · graded GDP Rank #68 Coverage 88% Categories scored14 / 16

Money Gate 20 · Overall Gate 0.7.0

Five basics stand between this country and zero

This profile has a direct five-part Money Gate audit. Any category below 4/4 keeps the whole country below zero.

Money Gate score 2.5 / 20 Cash-Register Lock 87.5 / 100 Friction Economy Pressure 83.7 / 100 Money-gated ceiling -43.4
Food 0.5 / 4 Housing / Land 1.0 / 4 Healthcare 1.0 / 4 Transportation 0.0 / 4 Water / Energy 0.0 / 4
9% weightHuman Time & Burden Return
+6.8

Whether productivity, infrastructure and institutions return usable lifetime to people and families.

TBFC target: Necessary contribution should not require people to sell most of their waking life merely to retain access to food, shelter, care and ordinary family life.

Access-gate research question: How much paid work or income-producing activity is required before an ordinary household can keep access to basic life, and what usable family time remains afterward?

Capacity+50.0
Reach+30.0
Friction-80.0
Return / Regeneration+25.0

Abundance Gap: +20.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

High poverty keeps ordinary life tightly dependent on household cash

Guatemala’s latest national living-conditions poverty results show large socioeconomic disparities and unequal access to essential services. The country has productive capacity, but many households still face a heavy combined cost burden.

Guatemala INE — ENCOVI poverty results
8% weightHousing, Shelter & Housing Reach
+8.1

Whether adequate shelter physically exists and actually reaches people without excessive cost, exclusion or vacancy mismatch.

TBFC target: Adequate family shelter should remain reachable without lifetime dependence on rent, mortgage debt or ability to pay.

Access-gate research question: What share of ordinary shelter access depends on rent, mortgage debt, purchase price or other recurring payment, and what dependable non-market routes exist at national scale?

Capacity+50.0
Reach+28.0
Friction-75.0
Return / Durability+30.0

Abundance Gap: +22.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Housing and basic-service inequality remain pronounced

ENCOVI household-condition results identify significant disparities in access to essential services. Secure shelter and serviced housing remain far from a dependable non-market baseline for ordinary families.

Guatemala INE — ENCOVI
9% weightFood, Nourishment & Free Food Abundance
+13.0

Physical food and nutrient capacity, nourishment reach, waste/loss, public edible landscapes and free food access.

TBFC target: Nutritious food should exist in multiplying abundance and remain reachable even when a household has no money to spend.

Access-gate research question: Can people obtain adequate nutritious food when they cannot pay, and are free/public/productive-food routes large enough to be ordinary rather than exceptional?

Capacity+60.0
Reach+35.0
Friction / Waste-75.0
Return / Multiplication+30.0

Abundance Gap: +25.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

School feeding gives public-school children a direct free-food route

The Ministry of Education’s School Feeding Programme supplies food during the school cycle across public initial, preprimary, primary and secondary levels. The route is substantial but institution-bound rather than universal household food access.

Guatemala Ministry of Education — School Feeding Programme
6% weightWater & Sanitation Abundance
+16.8

Safe water, sanitation, reliability, capture, reuse, storage and living-landscape water capacity.

TBFC target: Safe water and sanitation should be dependable life infrastructure, not conditional on household purchasing power.

Access-gate research question: Can households retain safe water and sanitation when income falls, and which payment, disconnection or infrastructure barriers interrupt access?

Capacity+55.0
Reach+40.0
Friction / Loss-65.0
Return / Regeneration+35.0

Abundance Gap: +15.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Water and sanitation access remains uneven

National poverty and household-condition evidence shows large geographic and income disparities in essential services. Water access is not yet a dependable no-payment national baseline.

Guatemala INE — ENCOVI
5% weightEnergy & Household Capability
+20.5

Whether usable, reliable energy reaches households and removes burdens across water, food, health, cooling, cooking and movement.

TBFC target: Essential household energy should support cooking, cooling, water, food preservation and care without money becoming the switch that turns basic capability on or off.

Access-gate research question: Can households retain essential energy for cooking, cooling, water and food preservation when they cannot pay, and how often does price or disconnection reduce capability?

Capacity+60.0
Reach+45.0
Friction-65.0
Return / Burden Removed+40.0

Abundance Gap: +15.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Electrification is expanding, but hundreds of thousands remain outside full reach

The Energy Ministry’s 2025 work reports a major rural-electrification push while documenting households and communities that still lack electricity. Connection does not itself remove monthly payment dependence.

Guatemala Ministry of Energy and Mines — 2025 report
7% weightHealth & Care Reach
+8.2

Whether prevention, primary care, medicine, maternity care, dentistry and specialist capability reach people when needed.

TBFC target: Prevention, maternity, dentistry, medicine and necessary treatment should be reachable because care is needed, not because payment can be produced.

Access-gate research question: Can necessary care be obtained because it is needed, or do price, insurance, employment, debt or other financial tests materially delay or prevent access?

Capacity+50.0
Reach+32.0
Friction-80.0
Return / Prevention+30.0

Abundance Gap: +18.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Very high out-of-pocket health spending signals severe financial friction

PAHO reports out-of-pocket health expenditure at 60.98% of total health spending in 2021, despite the public health-service network. That level of direct household payment sharply limits care as a money-independent baseline.

PAHO — Guatemala country profile
6% weightEducation & Human Capability
+22.5

Foundational learning plus practical, technical and enduring civilization capability retained by people.

TBFC target: Foundational learning and useful capability should be reachable as part of civilization life rather than purchased according to family income.

Access-gate research question: Which essential learning and capability routes are genuinely reachable regardless of family income, and where do fees, debt or paid enrichment create decisive access gaps?

Capacity+60.0
Reach+45.0
Friction-60.0
Return / Capability+45.0

Abundance Gap: +15.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Public schooling and school programmes provide capability, but household inequality remains decisive

The national public education system and associated school programmes create broad non-market learning capacity, while poverty, geography and unequal resources continue to shape practical reach.

Guatemala Ministry of Education
4% weightMobility & Reachability
+11.8

Local, regional and national movement that connects people to family, services, work, learning and public life without consuming excessive time.

TBFC target: Ordinary local and regional movement should be available for family, care, learning and civic life without travel becoming a paywall.

Access-gate research question: Can ordinary people reach family, care, learning and public life without high recurring fares, vehicle costs, debt or fuel dependence?

Capacity+50.0
Reach+35.0
Friction-70.0
Return / Time+30.0

Abundance Gap: +15.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Public passenger transport is regulated but explicitly fare-based

The General Transport Directorate explains that extraurban passenger fares are calculated and charged under regulated formulas, including per-kilometre charges on longer routes. This is a paid mobility system, not a zero-fare baseline.

Guatemala General Directorate of Transport — fare calculation
8% weightFamily Formation, Continuity & Child Stability
+4.8

Conditions that let people form stable families, raise children, share parental time and continue family life without punishing material barriers.

TBFC target: People should be able to form, continue and multiply family life. Trott Bailey Family Civilization uses 5.0 children per woman as the fertility target; 2.1 is the replacement floor, not the aspiration, while housing, care, food and time should not be withheld behind financial thresholds.

Access-gate research question: How strongly do housing, childcare, health, food and work-income requirements delay or destabilize family formation and continuity, and is total fertility moving above replacement toward the 5.0-children-per-woman civilization target?

Capacity+45.0
Reach+28.0
Friction-80.0
Return / Continuity+25.0

Abundance Gap: +17.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Family formation occurs under combined food, shelter, health and mobility pressure

High poverty and unequal service access mean families must repeatedly solve several necessities through cash at once. The burden is cumulative rather than captured by any one free programme.

Guatemala INE — ENCOVI
5% weightLand Access & Spatial Freedom
+14.7

Whether land and settlement choice reach ordinary people rather than opportunity being functionally trapped inside expensive commercial centres.

TBFC target: Suitable productive land and settlement opportunity should not be functionally reserved for those able to outbid everyone else.

Access-gate research question: Can ordinary families gain secure use of suitable productive ground without first accumulating enough money to purchase, finance or outbid others?

Capacity+55.0
Reach+32.0
Friction / Concentration-65.0
Return / Productive Ground+40.0

Abundance Gap: +23.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

State-land adjudication gives campesino families a real but limited access route

FONTIERRAS operates a formal programme to adjudicate and regularize available state land and reported communal title delivery in 2025. This earns direct land-access credit without implying universal free housing or land.

FONTIERRAS — State land adjudication and regularization
6% weightPeace of Mind, Happiness, Beauty & Delight
+30.8

Peace of mind, social support, everyday safety, public beauty, recreation, nature, culture and delight reachable without constant payment.

TBFC target: Beauty, nature, recreation, rest and public delight should belong to ordinary life rather than appearing mainly after payment.

Access-gate research question: How much everyday rest, nature, recreation, culture and public beauty is freely reachable, rather than principally accessed through paid venues, travel or private property?

Capacity+65.0
Reach+50.0
Friction-45.0
Return / Delight+55.0

Abundance Gap: +15.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Protected areas make nature and recreation broadly present as public value

More than 30% of Guatemala’s territory is within the protected-area system, creating substantial shared ecological, scenic and recreational capacity even though transport and local safety affect practical reach.

CONAP — protected areas and biodiversity
6% weightLiving Ground, Biodiversity & Resilience
+39.8

Whether soil, forests, wetlands, habitat, pollinators, species and water-holding landscapes are strengthening rather than being consumed.

TBFC target: Regenerating soil, water, habitat and food-bearing landscapes should be maintained as shared life-supporting capacity rather than only where a transaction makes them profitable.

Access-gate research question: Are regenerative land, water and habitat functions maintained as life-supporting infrastructure even when no direct commercial return is available?

Capacity+75.0
Reach / Ecological Function+55.0
Friction / Loss-35.0
Return / Regeneration+70.0

Abundance Gap: +20.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

A large protected-area network anchors national biodiversity resilience

CONAP reports the protected-area network covering more than 32% of national territory and is implementing an updated 2026–2050 biodiversity strategy. Regeneration capacity is meaningful but land and climate pressures remain.

CONAP — National Biodiversity Strategy 2026–2050
5% weightJustice, Safety & Institutional Friction
+13.0

Physical safety, usable justice, legal identity, reliable public administration and low needless institutional burden.

TBFC target: Usable justice, legal identity, safety and ordinary administration should remain accessible regardless of wealth.

Access-gate research question: Do fees, legal costs, bail, fines, documentation costs or ability to hire expertise materially change access to justice, safety or public administration?

Capacity+45.0
Reach+35.0
Friction-60.0
Return / Reliability+30.0

Abundance Gap: +10.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Free public criminal defense is a genuine justice-access route

The autonomous Public Criminal Defense Institute provides free legal defense to people with low economic resources. The route is important but narrower than universal no-cost civil and administrative legal access.

Instituto de la Defensa Pública Penal
4% weightDurability, Repair & Material Return
+8.5

Whether useful materials, infrastructure and goods are maintained, repairable, recovered and cycled instead of repeatedly becoming waste.

TBFC target: Repair, maintenance and useful material circulation should protect capability instead of forcing repeated repurchase as the default route to continued use.

Access-gate research question: Do repair and maintenance remain practically accessible, or do pricing, proprietary restrictions and replacement incentives turn continued use into repeated purchasing?

Capacity+45.0
Reach+25.0
Friction / Waste-70.0
Return / Circularity+40.0

Abundance Gap: +20.0

TBF reading

Reviewed 2026-10-05. Four rails remain separate from the five-part Money Gate 20 audit; no missing category was zero-filled.

Verified evidence

Circular-economy strategy exists, while everyday repair remains mostly market-mediated

Guatemala launched a national 2024–2045 circular-economy transition strategy and action work on common solid waste. Policy direction is positive, but household repair and durable-material return are not yet ordinary free infrastructure.

Guatemala MARN — Circular Economy Strategy 2024–2045

Trott Bailey Family Civilization Target

The end state: life beyond monetary gatekeeping

Trott Bailey Family Civilization treats money as an exchange tool rather than a prerequisite for access to life. The long-run abundance target is that food, water, shelter, care, education, mobility, land access and ordinary public life remain reachable even when a person cannot pay.

This target is an authored civilization standard. The diagnostic evidence score can now draw from all 16 weighted categories. The five-part Money Gate remains a separate domestic threshold asking whether food, housing/land, healthcare, transportation and water/energy are genuinely reachable without payment before any civilization can cross zero.

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