Tajikistan
Trott Bailey Family Abundance · Country Profile
Tajikistan
Tracking baselineEvidence through 5 Oct 2026Money Gate 20 · Overall Gate 0.7.0 Money Gate 20 Food, Housing / Land, Healthcare, Transportation and Water / Energy are four points each. All five must reach 4/4 before the country can cross zero. Money may still exist as an exchange tool; it cannot remain the permission slip for these five basics. Read Money Is a Weak Civilization Engine
Five basics stand between this country and zero
This profile has a direct five-part Money Gate audit. Any category below 4/4 keeps the whole country below zero.
9% weightHuman Time & Burden Return
-18.0
Whether productivity, infrastructure and institutions return usable lifetime to people and families.
TBFC target: Necessary contribution should not require people to sell most of their waking life merely to retain access to food, shelter, care and ordinary family life.
Access-gate research question: How much paid work or income-producing activity is required before an ordinary household can keep access to basic life, and what usable family time remains afterward?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Rapid growth and remittances have reduced poverty, but low wages, migration for work and regional service gaps impose high household time burdens.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
8% weightHousing, Shelter & Housing Reach
-22.0
Whether adequate shelter physically exists and actually reaches people without excessive cost, exclusion or vacancy mismatch.
TBFC target: Adequate family shelter should remain reachable without lifetime dependence on rent, mortgage debt or ability to pay.
Access-gate research question: What share of ordinary shelter access depends on rent, mortgage debt, purchase price or other recurring payment, and what dependable non-market routes exist at national scale?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Housing ownership is common, yet quality, heating, infrastructure and affordability are uneven and no universal free-shelter route exists.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
9% weightFood, Nourishment & Free Food Abundance
-15.0
Physical food and nutrient capacity, nourishment reach, waste/loss, public edible landscapes and free food access.
TBFC target: Nutritious food should exist in multiplying abundance and remain reachable even when a household has no money to spend.
Access-gate research question: Can people obtain adequate nutritious food when they cannot pay, and are free/public/productive-food routes large enough to be ordinary rather than exceptional?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Agriculture supports livelihoods, while food-price exposure and poverty mean nourishment still depends heavily on household income and subsistence work.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
6% weightWater & Sanitation Abundance
-5.0
Safe water, sanitation, reliability, capture, reuse, storage and living-landscape water capacity.
TBFC target: Safe water and sanitation should be dependable life infrastructure, not conditional on household purchasing power.
Access-gate research question: Can households retain safe water and sanitation when income falls, and which payment, disconnection or infrastructure barriers interrupt access?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Large 2026 investment in irrigation and water efficiency expands capacity, but rural water and irrigation gaps remain significant.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
5% weightEnergy & Household Capability
+5.0
Whether usable, reliable energy reaches households and removes burdens across water, food, health, cooling, cooking and movement.
TBFC target: Essential household energy should support cooking, cooling, water, food preservation and care without money becoming the switch that turns basic capability on or off.
Access-gate research question: Can households retain essential energy for cooking, cooling, water and food preservation when they cannot pay, and how often does price or disconnection reduce capability?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Hydropower is a major asset, yet reliability, seasonal shortages and rural energy efficiency remain important constraints.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
7% weightHealth & Care Reach
-18.0
Whether prevention, primary care, medicine, maternity care, dentistry and specialist capability reach people when needed.
TBFC target: Prevention, maternity, dentistry, medicine and necessary treatment should be reachable because care is needed, not because payment can be produced.
Access-gate research question: Can necessary care be obtained because it is needed, or do price, insurance, employment, debt or other financial tests materially delay or prevent access?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Health investment is expanding, while household payments and uneven rural service quality still create access friction.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
6% weightEducation & Human Capability
-20.0
Foundational learning plus practical, technical and enduring civilization capability retained by people.
TBFC target: Foundational learning and useful capability should be reachable as part of civilization life rather than purchased according to family income.
Access-gate research question: Which essential learning and capability routes are genuinely reachable regardless of family income, and where do fees, debt or paid enrichment create decisive access gaps?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Education is broadly provided but learning quality, skills and school infrastructure remain central development priorities.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
4% weightMobility & Reachability
-28.0
Local, regional and national movement that connects people to family, services, work, learning and public life without consuming excessive time.
TBFC target: Ordinary local and regional movement should be available for family, care, learning and civic life without travel becoming a paywall.
Access-gate research question: Can ordinary people reach family, care, learning and public life without high recurring fares, vehicle costs, debt or fuel dependence?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Road and regional-connectivity investment continues, but mountainous geography and rural distance create substantial mobility friction.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
8% weightFamily Formation, Continuity & Child Stability
Fertility agenda · target 5.0
Family continuity is measured partly by whether children are actually multiplying. New and re-reviewed profiles use total fertility as 40% of Family Formation: 2.1 births per woman is the replacement floor and earns positive but limited credit; the authored target is 5.0.
Read A Civilization Built for Mothers and Fathers
+7.7
Conditions that let people form stable families, raise children, share parental time and continue family life without punishing material barriers.
TBFC target: People should be able to form, continue and multiply family life. Trott Bailey Family Civilization uses 5.0 children per woman as the fertility target; 2.1 is the replacement floor, not the aspiration, while housing, care, food and time should not be withheld behind financial thresholds.
Access-gate research question: How strongly do housing, childcare, health, food and work-income requirements delay or destabilize family formation and continuity, and is total fertility moving above replacement toward the 5.0-children-per-woman civilization target?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Family Formation = 60% lived family environment (-20.00) + 40% fertility performance (49.31) from TFR 3.04 (2024); final 7.72.
Published indicators
World Bank WDI via FRED — Tajikistan fertility · 2024
SourceVerified evidence
The 2024 fertility rate of 3.04 is well above replacement and earns strong positive fertility credit, while incomes and service gaps still burden families.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
5% weightLand Access & Spatial Freedom
-12.0
Whether land and settlement choice reach ordinary people rather than opportunity being functionally trapped inside expensive commercial centres.
TBFC target: Suitable productive land and settlement opportunity should not be functionally reserved for those able to outbid everyone else.
Access-gate research question: Can ordinary families gain secure use of suitable productive ground without first accumulating enough money to purchase, finance or outbid others?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Rural land is economically important but tenure/use rights and productive access are structured and not a universal free-land entitlement.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
6% weightPeace of Mind, Happiness, Beauty & Delight
+20.0
Peace of mind, social support, everyday safety, public beauty, recreation, nature, culture and delight reachable without constant payment.
TBFC target: Beauty, nature, recreation, rest and public delight should belong to ordinary life rather than appearing mainly after payment.
Access-gate research question: How much everyday rest, nature, recreation, culture and public beauty is freely reachable, rather than principally accessed through paid venues, travel or private property?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Mountains and community life offer strong non-market value, while limited public amenities and income constrain equal access to delight.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
6% weightLiving Ground, Biodiversity & Resilience
+15.0
Whether soil, forests, wetlands, habitat, pollinators, species and water-holding landscapes are strengthening rather than being consumed.
TBFC target: Regenerating soil, water, habitat and food-bearing landscapes should be maintained as shared life-supporting capacity rather than only where a transaction makes them profitable.
Access-gate research question: Are regenerative land, water and habitat functions maintained as life-supporting infrastructure even when no direct commercial return is available?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Water, glacier and climate risks are large; clean-energy and resilience investment provides meaningful return capacity.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
5% weightJustice, Safety & Institutional Friction
-25.0
Physical safety, usable justice, legal identity, reliable public administration and low needless institutional burden.
TBFC target: Usable justice, legal identity, safety and ordinary administration should remain accessible regardless of wealth.
Access-gate research question: Do fees, legal costs, bail, fines, documentation costs or ability to hire expertise materially change access to justice, safety or public administration?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Public administration functions nationwide, but rights, bureaucracy and uneven access create material friction.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
4% weightDurability, Repair & Material Return
0.0
Whether useful materials, infrastructure and goods are maintained, repairable, recovered and cycled instead of repeatedly becoming waste.
TBFC target: Repair, maintenance and useful material circulation should protect capability instead of forcing repeated repurchase as the default route to continued use.
Access-gate research question: Do repair and maintenance remain practically accessible, or do pricing, proprietary restrictions and replacement incentives turn continued use into repeated purchasing?
Abundance Gap: +6.0
Category Method 0.0.1: 25% Capacity, 35% Reach, 25% Friction, 15% Return/Regeneration.
Verified evidence
Large infrastructure programs are improving energy, water and transport durability, but maintenance capacity remains uneven.
World Bank / World Bank WDI
6% weightInternational Accessibility, Migration & Human Welcome
+56.1
How easily visitors, migrants, refugees and neighbours can enter, remain, regularize status and participate in ordinary civic and economic life.
TBFC target: A country should have a humane vision for visitors, migrants, refugees and neighbouring families: practical entry, legal identity, family continuity, protection from statelessness, a route into ordinary life and a real place to contribute and grow with the society.
Access-gate research question: Who can enter and stay, how wide is visa-free/eVisa/eTA reach, can newcomers regularize status and work, are refugees and children protected from statelessness, can families remain together, and does the country have a practical long-term vision for newcomers to join ordinary life and contribute?
International Welcome 1.0.0: 25% Entry Accessibility, 30% Migrant Practical Life, 25% Refugee/Neighbour Welcome, 20% Flexibility/Continuity. Verified >100-nationality eVisa adjustment: +5 category points.
Verified evidence
Tajikistan offers an official eVisa route covering more than 100 listed nationalities, earning the explicit +5 adjustment. UNHCR also records substantial progress on statelessness, universal birth registration and asylum-law reform, although durable refugee integration still has restrictions.
Official government / legal source
6% weightExternal Footprint & Non-Extractive Global Conduct
+36.0
Documented effects a country, its public institutions or materially supported programs have beyond its borders: beneficial contribution, mutuality, external harm, accountability and repair.
TBFC target: A civilization should increase useful local capability beyond its borders through medicine, training, disaster help, technical cooperation, peace-building and other mutually useful contribution, while avoiding extraction, exported harm and displacement.
Access-gate research question: Do the country’s actions abroad increase health, skill, safety, resilience and locally retained capability, or do they export extraction, coercion, environmental harm, displacement, debt or other burdens?
External Footprint 1.0.0: 25% Positive Contribution, 25% Mutuality/Local Benefit, 35% low-harm/non-extractive conduct, 15% Accountability/Repair. Scale is judged relative to national capacity.
Verified evidence
Tajikistan participates in regional water, energy and development cooperation and provides some cross-border public goods, but it is primarily a recipient rather than a large outward humanitarian provider.
World Bank / World Bank WDITrott Bailey Family Civilization Target
The end state: life beyond monetary gatekeeping
Trott Bailey Family Civilization treats money as an exchange tool rather than a prerequisite for access to life. The long-run abundance target is that food, water, shelter, care, education, mobility, land access and ordinary public life remain reachable even when a person cannot pay.
This target is an authored civilization standard. The diagnostic evidence score can now draw from all 16 weighted categories. The five-part Money Gate remains a separate domestic threshold asking whether food, housing/land, healthcare, transportation and water/energy are genuinely reachable without payment before any civilization can cross zero.
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